The urgency of climate change has never been clearer as world leaders gather for COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. 2024 has set itself apart as potentially the hottest year on record, with global carbon dioxide emissions breaking all previous records. New reports highlight the dangers of exceeding the internationally agreed limit to keep the rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius, warning of increasingly severe weather extremes and catastrophic impacts if drastic measures aren't taken.
A latest report from the Global Carbon Project reveals the startling figure: fossil carbon emissions are forecasted to reach 37.4 billion tonnes this year alone—an increase of 0.8% from 2023. This trend contradicts the hopes for stabilization and significant reduction of these emissions as outlined during previous climate summits. With approximately 41.6 billion tonnes expected once other pollution sources such as deforestation are accounted for, the alarming rise indicates the world is drifting away from the paths established by agreements like the Paris Accord.
According to experts, the goal to maintain temperature rises below 1.5 degrees Celsius is rapidly becoming unachievable. Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at Stripe, noted, “The goal to avoid exceeding 1.5 Celsius is deader than a doornail. It’s almost impossible to avoid at this point because we’ve just waited too long to act.” This acknowledgment puts the emphasis on the urgent need to cut carbon emissions dramatically and immediately.
Compounding the problem is the call for accountability surrounding the use of natural carbon sinks. Experts warn against the misuse of these resources as offsetting measures. Countries like Russia and the European Union are beginning to include their natural carbon sinks, such as forests and oceans, within their emissions accounting formulas—actions deemed risky as they can mislead about the real status of emissions reductions. It suggests the potential for double accounting, where one source masks true fossil fuel dependency and emissions.
Many scientists suggest the potential pivot to what is termed geological net zero, which requires nations to match each ton of emitted carbon with equivalent removals. The difficulty, as scientists underline, is scaling existing carbon capture technologies which currently hold minimal efficiency—only managing 0.1% of emissions removed globally. Meanwhile, across the globe, international financial commitments remain stagnated, hindering developments necessary to mitigate these issues.
With COP29 under way, calls for significant reforms continue to ring out. Noteworthy figures such as Christiana Figueres, former head of the Paris climate talks, and former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon are demanding comprehensive changes to the conference formats to facilitate rapid actions. The latest COP proceedings have highlighted the importance of moving from negotiation to actual implementation, advocating for more frequent, smaller meetings focused on delivering concrete solutions.
Canada's situation provides another layer of complexity. The nation has recorded a staggering growth of 58% in emissions from exported fossil fuels since 2012, totaling over one billion tonnes. This increase brings attention to the need for comprehensive emission accounting, including both domestic and export figures, highlighting the shortfalls of national commitments to the United Nations Climate Change Framework.
Despite Canada's efforts to cut domestic emissions, the emphasis on maintaining fossil fuel production for export undermines the country’s climate leadership and accountability. Ecojustice and Environmental Defence have raised concerns, stating Canada’s failure to address downstream emissions from exported fossil fuels could set global initiatives back significantly.
The reality is clear: nations cannot simply shift the responsibility of emissions elsewhere. A collaborative global approach is required, with immediate and substantial investment flowing toward renewable energy sources, especially as the latest Global Carbon Budget report highlights some encouraging signs, such as significant investments propelling the adoption of electric vehicles and renewables. With transitions underway, many advocate for prioritizing solutions and rolling back investments harmful to global carbon efforts.
With climate models becoming increasingly uncertain and dire predictions on the horizon, the need for immediate action is clear. This pivotal moment calls upon global leaders to commit genuinely to addressing climate change—or risk the continued rise of the planet’s temperatures beyond manageable thresholds.
