Global export trends for 2024 reveal significant fluctuations across various industries, reflecting both regional dynamics and overarching economic conditions. From soaring exports of Ukrainian scrap metal to declines in UK whisky and Argentine seafood, the picture is mixed and speaks to the challenges and opportunities within the global market.
Recent statistics from Ukraine highlight a dramatic rise in ferrous scrap exports, which increased by 62.4% year-on-year from January to November 2024, reaching 261.58 thousand tons. According to the State Customs Service, November alone saw shipments leap by 41% compared to October and 145.5% compared to November 2023, hitting 34.61 thousand tons—the highest reported levels in three years. The financial gains were also promising, with revenues from exports for November amounting to $10.19 million, marking increases of 42.4% month-on-month and 136.1% year-on-year. For the full January-November period, total revenue clocked $82.06 million, up 76.8% year-on-year.
These increases are notable against the backdrop of challenges faced by the Ukrainian scrap industry, primarily due to the war, which limited scrap collection capabilities. Despite these challenges, imports predominantly headed to Poland, totaling 223.48 thousand tons, followed by Greece and Germany. This surge, even amid geopolitical instability, indicates resurgent global demand for raw materials.
Meanwhile, South Africa's table grape export market displayed mixed outcomes by the 50th week of the 2024/2025 season. Inspections revealed 10.99 million cartons—a 12.6% decline—reflecting lower yields from early varieties particularly impacted by weather conditions. Conversely, actual exports increased by 23% to 7.51 million cartons, attributed to enhanced logistics and improved stock management. Producers expressed optimism as various regions prepared for mid-season harvests, with the EU and UK receiving 87% of shipments, demonstrating the importance of these markets.
Balancing the green shoots of recovery, logistical improvements at Cape Town Container Terminal have propelled efficiency measures forward, allowing for enhanced operations. Despite the declines observed, South Africa's grape industry remains positive due to favorable weather conditions and growing international demands.
Turning to natural gas markets, the United States faces its first contraction of LNG feedgas demand since beginning exports eight years ago. Key factors contributing to this decline include operational outages at Freeport LNG, with various production delays and underperformance at several facilities leading to reduced output. Although the expected growth of production capacity remains unchanged, it is not currently translating to increased delivery levels. Market analysts such as Alex Munton from Rapidan Energy Group maintain optimism, predicting recovery and growth, citing expected feedgas demand growth of 2 billion cubic feet per day next year as new facilities come online.
The European LNG market continues to adjust amid geopolitical changes, particularly as prices remain high following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, driving demand for U.S. LNG. The projected increases, albeit temporary, could mark the beginning of long-term growth, contingent on successful management of rising prices and weather impacts.
Across the ocean, UK food and drink exports showcased stark figures, with whisky exports declining significantly—by 28.5% by volume and 36.4% by value, amounting to £2.8 billion (US$3.5 billion) for the first nine months of 2024. The Food & Drink Federation cited challenges for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) faced with administrative burdens and trade issues, emphasizing the necessary support to navigate international markets.
The U.S. stands as the UK's third-largest export market, and whisky exports to this region dropped by 23.2% to £558 million (US$698 million). Accompanying declines were seen for gin, plummeting by 37.1%, reflecting broader challenges for alcoholic exports, compounded by shifting market dynamics as demand alters with elevatory competition.
Lastly, Argentina's fisheries have also not escaped negative trends, as both red shrimp and illex squid exports showed substantial declines according to recent data from the country's Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries. The specific numbers reveal significant setbacks as the industry navigates challenging export conditions, reflective of weather and logistical issues.
Overall, 2024 is shaping up as a year of remarkably varied export trends influenced by local, regional, and global factors. Industries are seeing shifts driven by both increased demands for materials like scrap metal and the vulnerabilities faced by established markets such as spirits and seafood. This year's conclusion may set the foundation for future trade landscapes as both opportunities and hurdles lie on the horizon.
