In a significant turn of events for French motorists, fuel prices are expected to drop by 5 to 6 cents this week, starting April 7, 2025, due to a dramatic decline in crude oil prices. This decrease is primarily attributed to recent announcements from the U.S. government regarding increased tariffs on imports, which have led to a dip in global oil prices.
Olivier Gantois, the president of Ufip Énergies et Mobilités, representing the French oil industry, confirmed the expected reduction during an interview on Franceinfo. He noted that the price of crude oil has plummeted from $74 per barrel at the beginning of last week to $63 per barrel by midday Monday. “It’s a drop we haven’t seen since the COVID lockdowns in 2020,” Gantois stated.
On the same day, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the American benchmark for crude oil, fell below $60 for the first time since April 2021, marking a 4% loss in just one day. This substantial drop reflects a more than 16% decline since the previous Wednesday, when the U.S. announced its tariff increases.
According to Gantois, the rapid response of fuel prices to changes in crude oil rates has become a norm in recent years. “We’ve already seen prices starting to decrease at the end of last week, which means the official prices released by the Ministry of Energy will likely show a decline today,” he explained.
Patrice Geoffron, an economist and director of the geopolitics center on Energy and Raw Materials at the University Paris-Dauphine, echoed Gantois's sentiments. He emphasized that while the decrease in oil prices will lead to a noticeable drop in fuel costs, the impact might be limited to just a few cents for now. “What determines the variations in pump prices is primarily the price of oil, along with refining costs,” Geoffron noted.
The decline in oil prices is linked to broader economic concerns. The tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump have raised fears of a slowdown in the global economy, which in turn has led markets to anticipate a potential surplus of oil production. “This situation creates uncertainty in the markets, which is reflected in the falling prices,” Geoffron added.
As fuel prices begin to adjust, the average cost of diesel, which is still used by over half of the cars in France, is expected to decrease from €1.63 per liter to €1.60. Similarly, the price of E10 gasoline, another popular fuel, is projected to drop from €1.71 to €1.68 per liter.
Despite these positive developments for consumers, Gantois cautioned that the government taxes on fuel, which account for about 60% of the price at the pump, will remain unchanged. This includes the value-added tax (VAT) and the domestic consumption tax on energy products (TICPE).
Looking ahead, there are questions about the sustainability of this price drop. Gantois pointed out that while the current situation appears favorable for consumers, the dynamics of the oil market could change rapidly. The OPEC+ countries, which control a significant portion of the world’s oil supply, have recently decided to increase production in response to expected demand growth in 2025. Starting in May, they will ramp up production by an additional 300,000 barrels per day, which could further influence global oil prices.
The situation remains fluid, and market analysts are closely monitoring the developments. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, highlighted the potential for ongoing volatility. “The market sentiment has been shaken by fears of a global recession due to the trade tensions,” he stated. “If oil prices continue to fall, we could see a significant impact on fuel prices, but this will depend on how the situation evolves.”
As of now, the fall in oil prices is viewed as a boon for French motorists, providing some relief at the pump. However, with the complexities of global oil markets and the influence of government policies, the future trajectory of fuel prices remains uncertain. Will the downward trend continue, or will we see a rebound? Only time will tell.
In summary, the recent drop in crude oil prices is expected to lead to a decrease in fuel prices in France, offering a temporary relief to consumers. However, the situation remains delicate, influenced by international trade policies and market dynamics.
