In recent political polls, Fratelli d’Italia (FdI), led by Giorgia Meloni, has reached a historic high of 31% in voter preferences, marking a significant increase of half a point compared to previous surveys. This surge solidifies Meloni's leadership and the government’s position, especially as the center-right coalition now surpasses 50% in total support. This trend is noteworthy, as governing parties typically see a decline in popularity during their terms.
The latest survey results indicate that the overall center-right coalition stands strong, with Lega at 9% and Forza Italia at 8.5%. In stark contrast, the opposition appears fragmented. The Democratic Party (PD) has dropped to 22%, while the 5 Star Movement (M5S) has gained a point, reaching 13%. This political landscape suggests a polarized Italy, with a solid majority on one side and a disunited opposition on the other.
According to a recent Supermedia poll by Youtrend, which averages various electoral surveys, Fratelli d’Italia was recorded at 29.4%, gaining 0.5% over the last two weeks. The PD, under Elly Schlein, has struggled, now at 22.3%, down by 0.4%. Meanwhile, the M5S holds steady at 12.1%. Other parties, including Forza Italia and Lega, have shown minor fluctuations, with Forza Italia at 9.4% and Lega at 8.6%.
These shifts in voter sentiment reflect recent political events that have stirred public opinion. Noteworthy occurrences include a demonstration by the M5S in Rome against European rearmament, and a controversial interview with Elon Musk by Matteo Salvini during a Lega congress in Florence. Additionally, King Charles III and his consort visited the Italian Parliament, which drew considerable media attention.
The political environment remains complex, particularly for the left. The PD has not only lost ground but is also facing internal challenges, making it difficult to envision a united front against the center-right coalition. The idea of a broad alliance among various left-leaning parties appears increasingly distant, given the significant political distance between the PD, M5S, Azione, Italia Viva, and Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra.
As of April 17, 2025, the breakdown of coalition support shows the center-right at 48.5%, the center-left at 30.2%, and the M5S at 12.1%. The Terzo Polo, which includes Azione and Italia Viva, has garnered around 6%. This data suggests that if elections were held today, the center-right would likely secure a victory, returning to power with a substantial margin.
The electoral dynamics are further complicated by the issue of abstention. A recent Ipsos survey indicated that 46.5% of the electorate is either undecided or likely to abstain from voting. This statistic highlights the challenges that all parties face in engaging voters and mobilizing support.
Interestingly, the former 'Third Pole' parties, particularly Azione, have seen a resurgence, gaining over half a point in recent weeks and reaching a combined total of 6% when paired with other liberal center parties. This uptick is particularly significant as it marks a return to levels not seen since the 2024 European elections.
In summary, the current political climate in Italy is characterized by a strong center-right coalition led by Meloni and a fragmented opposition struggling to find cohesion. The latest polling data illustrates a clear divide in voter preferences, with the FdI and its allies enjoying solid support while the PD and other left-leaning parties grapple with declining numbers and internal divisions. As Italy approaches the European elections scheduled for June 8 and 9, 2024, the implications of these trends will be closely watched by political analysts and citizens alike.
The ongoing political developments suggest a period of stability for the current government, as voters appear to favor consistency and coherence in leadership. With the next electoral contests on the horizon, the stakes are high for all parties involved as they navigate this complex landscape.
