France is on the cusp of witnessing significant political shifts as François Bayrou endeavors to form his government. On December 21, 2024, Bayrou engaged in consultations aimed at securing support from various factions amid increasing unrest among left-wing parties.
With the specter of censure looming over Bayrou's administration, members of the Socialist Party (PS) are voicing strong opposition. Olivier Faure, the first secretary of the PS, expressed grave concerns following the political discussions. Faure stated, "We have not found reasons not to censure" the new government's proposals, pointing to the party's dissatisfaction with Bayrou's plans.
The crux of the tension lies within Bayrou's controversial proposed reforms, particularly concerning the much-debated retirement policy. Faure argued the proposals are "very insufficient" and stressed the PS’s demand for suspending the retirement reform for comprehensive negotiations with social partners.
This situation has created palpable tension within the political arena. Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France insoumise predicted dire consequences for Bayrou, declaring, "François Bayrou will not last through the winter," referring to anticipated challenges, including potential motions of censure from the opposition.
Despite these hurdles, some factions are open to collaboration. Laurent Wauquiez, head of Les Républicains, declined an offer to join Bayrou’s government, stating, "The only feasible configuration for me was Bercy, with no tax increases." Nevertheless, the party has not closed the door entirely, with discussions hinting at possible participation under favorable terms.
Simultaneously, Bayrou has been attempting to stabilize his government by considering former ministers from the previous administration, such as Bruno Retailleau and Sébastien Lecornu. The historical unpopularity of Bayrou’s administration—suffering from the lowest approval ratings ever recorded for a newly appointed Prime Minister—adds pressure to rapidly establish a cohesive team.
An Ifop survey showed 66% of respondents dissatisfied with Bayrou's appointment, painting a bleak picture for his early tenure. Comparatively, prior Prime Ministers launched their terms with higher ratings, showcasing the unique challenges Bayrou faces.
Adding complexity to this political scenario is the role of Emmanuel Macron, who has initiated discussions with Bayrou to finalize the cabinet. The president's absence during Bayrou's early consultations contributed to delays, with the announcement of the new government expected over the weekend. Macron's recent popularity bump—spurred by high-profile events—is pivotally linked to Bayrou’s success.
Negotiations have become increasingly urgent as rumors swirl about potential cabinet appointments. Prominent figures like Élisabeth Borne and Gérald Darmanin might be reinstated, though gaining the support of the left presents yet another formidable challenge.
Discussion continues about the elusive composition of the Bayrou government. Reports suggest he aims for parity, incorporating representatives from both the left and right to forge unity. Nevertheless, the PS has firmly rejected any coalition offers, insisting on being part of the opposition.
Despite these obstacles, Bayrou remains committed to ensuring the government is formed quickly, stating his intention to announce appointments before Christmas. With pressure mounting from all sides, the new Prime Minister faces not only the immediate task of assembling his cabinet but also the longer-term challenge of ensuring stability and effective governance.
Echoing sentiments of dissatisfaction among constituents, many are awaiting the government's composition with skepticism. Political insiders assert Bayrou’s new cabinet announcements are pivotal, not just for his political survival but for the stability of the current French government.
To mitigate opposition, Bayrou must navigate tricky waters, balancing the demands of various factions, including calls for revised retirement reform and economic agendas. The political climate is charged, and whether Bayrou can form a stable government remains to be seen.
Bayrou’s tenure will undoubtedly be defined by how effectively he engages with both opposition parties and the citizenry, reflecting public sentiment and addressing their concerns. The upcoming days will be telling—will François Bayrou find the middle ground necessary for political survival?
