In light of escalating geopolitical tensions, notably stemming from Russia's aggressive actions in Ukraine, European policymakers are grappling with a profound reassessment of defense strategies. The unfolding situation has triggered a surge in defense expenditures across European nations, with Germany taking a prominent role in this shift, reflecting a new urgency to bolster security in the region.
As the war enters its third year, the implications for Europe are clear. Analysts like Sinan Ülgen, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, emphasize that the EU cannot rely solely on its own member states or existing security frameworks to ensure its defense. This necessitates forming security partnerships with non-EU countries—particularly Turkey and the UK, which have considerable military capabilities.
Turkish forces possess the second largest standing army in NATO, right behind the U.S., and are experienced in multi-domain operations, making Turkey an essential partner in reinforcing European security. Ülgen argues for the EU to create new arrangements that include these non-EU states as integral players in the continent's defense strategy.
Moreover, the European Defense Technological and Industrial Base is under a critical test as European nations pivot towards significant defense spending—most notably highlighted in the White Paper for European Defense. Ester Sabatino, a research analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, points out that the EU's Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument permits up to 35% of a project’s final components to originate outside the EU. This framework opens doors for collaboration with countries like Turkey and the UK, should they agree to defense agreements with the EU.
The landscape of European defense is complicated by the reality that Europe must drastically scale up its military capabilities, having lagged on defense investment for years. Jakub Janda, director at the European Values Center for Security Policy, notes that while investing massively in armaments, Europe faces two substantial challenges: delivering these military assets within a reasonable timeline and maintaining a sustainable industrial base to support ongoing needs.
With calls for Europe to potentially double its defense spending, stakeholders recognize the urgency of adapting to fast-changing realities. There is a significant push for EU countries to prioritize sourcing their weapons from domestic suppliers to enhance independence and establish reliable supply chains. As stressed by Dr. Anna Wieslander from the Atlantic Council, focusing on domestic production, or “buy European,” remains vital, especially in the wake of supply chain issues that have emerged with support for Ukraine.
The expert consensus suggests that complication arises from the interconnectedness of defense industries, particularly as the UK remains committed to European security despite Brexit. Federica Mangiameli, a senior program manager for security at GLOBSEC, highlights that effectively integrating the UK’s advanced defense capabilities—with its strengths in air combat and naval power—into EU frameworks is essential. Any exclusion risk not only undermines operational capability but could also fracture a united front against rising threats.
On the other hand, Turkey presents a more intricate case due to its contentious relationship with the EU, especially regarding its military actions. While Turkey's advancements in drone technology have proven advantageous in modern conflicts, complexities surrounding its foreign policy and regional actions necessitate cautious engagement from EU partners.
As espionage concerns rise, EU member states are keen on ensuring that collaboration remains beneficial while also mitigating risks. The European values with respect to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) partnerships must be maintained, as highlighted by Marc Pierini at Carnegie Europe, who draws attention to the need for a careful framework to manage risks arising from reliance on Turkish capabilities.
Olivier Schmitt, a professor at the Royal Danish Defense College, insists that European security fundamentally extends beyond EU borders. The geopolitical landscape significantly complicates the challenge of aligning interests, particularly as the current U.S. administration appears less engaged with European security renewal efforts. European leaders must navigate a balance between increasing investments and realizing cooperative security arrangements that include key allies, both within and outside EU borders.
As the EU moves towards a more integrated defense model, analysts underline the necessity for systematic cooperation with non-EU states. Gesine Weber from the German Marshall Fund spoke to the imperative of expanding defense procurement to firms beyond the EU in order to stimulate innovation and safeguard production capabilities.
Amidst these developments, there is a glimmer of hope. The vital task ahead requires the EU to
