Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives emerged victorious once again, marking their third consecutive majority government in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Elections. With the party leading or elected in 80 of Ontario's 124 seats early Friday, Ford solidified his place among historical figures like Bill Davis and Leslie Frost as one of Ontario's most successful premiers. "This election, we promised to do whatever it takes to protect Ontario and I'm so proud of the support we received," Ford beamed during his election night celebration.
Despite this victory, Ford's team faced significant hurdles. Changes made to win over urban voters—such as the removal of bike lanes—did not resonate as intended, particularly within the downtown core of Toronto. The PCs were expected to face losses there, and they did, dropping some seats, most likely as the NDP continued to hold popularity among urban constituents. John Milloy, director of the Centre for Public Ethics at Martin Luther University, explained, "Ford wanted to make some headway [in Toronto], but at the same time, Doug Ford’s mastery of all this is... he understands his base, and his base is commuters from the suburbs."
The political backdrop for Ford's success includes the looming threat of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested imposing 25% duties on Canadian exports right after his election win. This tricky situation provided Ford's team with the perfect platform to run on the question of who is best positioned to protect Ontario's economy. Turning to early elections, Ford's camp sought to capitalize on his popularity and the perceived vulnerabilities of his rivals before potential scandals could come to light.
London displayed fascinating electoral dynamics, as the New Democrats successfully retained their hold on the city’s three urban ridings. They won decisively, with all four races decided by margins of at least 13 percentage points. Notably, Terence Kernaghan emerged victorious again in London North Centre with approximately 14% more votes than his Progressive Conservative opponent, Jerry Pribil. Kernaghan remarked, "I’m just so honoured... to bring forward their concerns to Queen’s Park." Not failing to mention the controversies surrounding Ford's administration, he referred to controversies like the investigation over the Greenbelt scandal as key influencing factors for voters.
Meanwhile, Peggy Sattler and Teresa Armstrong from the NDP also continued their victorious streaks, securing their seats comfortably. Sattler celebrated at the brewery Storm Stayed, expressing her gratitude for the continued trust from voters over her five terms, with approximately 49% of the vote. "The first time you win, it’s exciting, but... each time you win, it’s like the enormity of what you’re taking on is kind of front and centre," she said. Armstrong complemented Sattler’s achievement, thanking voters who faced challenges to participate during icy weather conditions.
On the other hand, Elgin-Middlesex-London saw Rob Flack from the PCs commend the rigorous campaign effort which secured him re-election, claiming, "We knocked on over 14,000 doors...the hard work paid off and that's what it's all about." Ford's sense of urgency for the election stemmed from not only securing power but also protecting Ontario residents from the potential fallout of U.S. tariffs on exports.
The election timing also proved significant since voters faced less distraction from federal politics due to Justin Trudeau's decision to prorogue Parliament and resign following mounting pressures. This scenario helped Ford frame his campaign around regional impact and stable governance, which buoyed his electoral favor.
While Ford's administration achieved electoral victory, major concerns loom around healthcare, with nearly 2.5 million Ontarians lacking primary care providers. This poses questions for future leadership on addressing systemic issues within the health sector, highlighting potential cracks amid celebratory victories.
Election night numbers indicated less than ideal voter turnout—approximately 42.62%—and stress how external factors, such as Trump's aggressive policies and their resonance with provincial issues, heavily influence local electoral moods. Ontario might see these results impacting federal elections shortly.
Political analysts, like Semra Sevi from the University of Toronto, suggest shifts within the Ontario political climate could redefine the national narrative. "These results show how external factors can significantly shape the political climate and voter priorities," she noted, anticipating the resurgence of federal Liberal prospects.
Ford's recent victory, alongside broader elections shaped by the specter of U.S. tariffs and local dissatisfaction with healthcare provisions, elucidates the intense political battlefield Ontario is currently experiencing. With the next fixed-date election set for June 2029, it will be imperative for Ford to navigate both internal challenges and external pressures if he hopes to secure continued support.