On March 18, 2025, the Central Bank of Russia announced new official exchange rates for the dollar, euro, and yuan. The dollar is set to trade at 84.3059 rubles, which marks an increase of 1.2635 rubles compared to the previous rate. The euro also saw a decline, now valued at 90.8443 rubles, which is down by 2.7644 rubles from its prior rate. The official exchange rate for the Chinese yuan has been established at 11.6000 rubles, down by 0.2167 rubles. These rates reflect the fluctuations and trends observed on the international currency exchange market.
The recent decline of the dollar below 84 rubles occurred for the first time since August 27, 2024. On March 17, 2025, the dollar dropped to 83.66 rubles by midday Moscow time, diminishing by 1.74 rubles from previous closing values. This noteworthy decrease has been attributed to various factors, including geopolitical events and economic indicators. Analyst Alexander Razuvayev indicated the fluctuation might not be long-lasting, projecting the dollar could rise back to 100 rubles soon, particularly influenced by upcoming political developments.
Razuvayev emphasized the importance of the impending phone call between Trump and Putin, stating it would have significant effects on the exchange rate and the geopolitical climate. He urged caution for those contemplating investments, recommending alternatives such as gold funds due to the uncertainties surrounding the currency market.
Financial experts interviewed by Vedomosti express high probabilities for the dollar returning to 100 rubles, reflecting concerns over the stability of the ruble. Analysts from various financial institutions noted the ruble’s recent gains likely stemmed from temporary factors such as geopolitical optimism. They also cautioned against viewing the current strengthening as enduring. Some economic indicators suggest the ruble might begin to soften again due to increases in import demand and tourism.
The current exchange rate dynamics reflect broader economic trends. For example, prices within Russia rose by 31.6% over the last three years compared to 12.4% increase seen in the USA. This disparity implies the dollar’s reassessed valuation could justify rates around 92 rubles by accounting for inflation pressures.
Speculative forecasts suggest the dollar might see more shifts. BCS anticipates the ruble could strengthen initially this week but will probably weaken again over the month. Consequently, the average dollar exchange rate is predicted to reach approximately 97 rubles, with projections for the end of the year estimating the rate could escalate to about 102 rubles. Conversely, analysts from Tsifry brokera foresee the dollar trading between 105-107 rubles over the same timeframe.
Elvira Mitiukova, head of the auditing company Academy of Successful Business, highlighted the role of international oil prices on the ruble's value, noting potential impacts on the dollar exchange rate, particularly if oil prices decline significantly.
Despite recent strengthening of the ruble, it has become evident through expert analysis and market behavior patterns, such as seasonal growth trends and demand for foreign currencies, combined with geopolitical uncertainties, suggest fluctuations will persist. Observers predict market factors will continue impacting currency rates as the geopolitical and economic landscapes evolve.
With the dollar having recorded its lowest levels against the ruble since August of last year, forecasts remain cautious. The current economic climate and anticipated moves on the global stage imply the situation warrants careful monitoring for any major reversals or shifts. The dynamics surrounding currency markets remain volatile, influenced heavily by political dialogues, inflation rates, and commodity prices.
