The lead-up to the Delhi Assembly elections of 2025 has been abuzz with speculation and predictions, especially concerning the forthcoming results of the exit polls conducted after the voting concluded on February 5. With counting set for February 8, the attention is primarily centered on how the major political parties—Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and Congress—will fare after the polls close.
According to various predictions, the BJP is expected to make significant gains, potentially reclaiming power for the first time since 1998. Specifically, exit polls from major polling agencies like Today's Chanakya and Axis My India suggest the BJP could secure between 45 and 61 seats out of the total 70. Conversely, these polls forecast bleak prospects for the incumbent AAP, expecting them to win only 10 to 25 seats, and Congress, which is likely to remain nearly absent from the Assembly with 0 to 1 seat.
The mood among party leaders reflects the stakes involved. BJP leaders are exuding confidence, with Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat stating, "Rather than considering exit polls, I can say the people's mindset indicates the BJP is coming to power with full majority." This sentiment seems to resonate, especially following trends seen during previous elections, where the BJP's support has steadily increased.
Meanwhile, the AAP is vehemently rejecting these speculative figures, citing past performance where they outstripped expectations. AAP leader Sushil Gupta noted, "We have seen every time polls did not show AAP winning, but Arvind Kejriwal has worked for the people of Delhi. We will see results in favor of AAP and we will form the government." This assertion is part of the party's broader strategy to rally support by emphasizing their governance record over the last two terms.
Looking back, previous elections have shown fluctuated exit poll accuracy, particularly the 2020 elections when most polls correctly forecasted AAP’s decisive victory, which raised eyebrows. The 2025 elections are no different, as history shows mixed results, with some polls massively invalidated when actual results emerged. Most famously, during the 2015 elections, all exit polls projected AAP would secure fewer seats than they did, as they triumphed with 67 out of 70 seats.
This unpredictability is why some officials urge caution about the reliance on exit polls. Rajya Sabha MP Swati Maliwal remarked, "Exit polls are premature; we should wait for the results. They may be right or wrong." This reflects the broader atmosphere of uncertainty leading up to result day, and it’s clear the voters have differing perceptions of the parties based on their experiences over the last few years.
Voter turnout is also indicative of public engagement, recorded at approximately 60.42%, which is about two percent lower than the 2020 elections. This figure tells its own story about the public’s enthusiasm and potential shifts among different voter segments. North East Delhi boasted the highest turnout at 66.25%, whereas South East recorded the lowest at 56.16%, providing food for thought on which areas might influence the final results on count day.
The intensity of competition among the candidates has been palpable, with the stakes being higher than ever, particularly for Congress, which appears unlikely to make any notable impact, as previous projections suggest they will remain underwhelming. Their leader has dismissed predictions, stating, "I do not have faith in any exit poll results. Let's wait for the voters’ final decision." This rhetoric may hint at intra-party challenges as well as broader electoral strategy problems moving forward.
With only days left until results are revealed, the narrative will continue to evolve as live updates will be available across multiple platforms including television broadcasts, highlighting key constituency results. Expected results could start coming through by early afternoon, with the final outcomes anticipated by evening on February 8.
The fate of the parties rests not just on exit poll predictions but on how effectively they resonate with voter sentiments and the public’s expectations of governance. How the electorate interprets the achievements and failures over the past terms will significantly shape their decisions at the ballots—and only time will tell who they entrust with the governance of Delhi for the coming term.