Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune are set to clash in the semi-finals of the prestigious Masters series tournament at Indian Wells on Saturday, March 15, 2025. The match begins at 21:00 Moscow time and promises to be intriguing as both players are vying for a spot in the final.
According to bookmakers, Medvedev is considered the favorite for this match, which isn't surprising considering he has won their last two head-to-head encounters, including one right here at Indian Wells last year. Medvedev, currently ranked 6th by the ATP, has shown signs of regaining his form after what has been considered an inconsistent start to the season.
On the other hand, Holger Rune, who holds the 13th spot on the ATP rankings, has been trying to find his footing after experiencing both highs and lows over the past couple of years. Rune shot to fame at the end of 2022, when, at just 19 years old, he stunned the tennis world by defeating Novak Djokovic to win the Paris Masters. This success sparked expectations of great things for the young talent.
Throughout the 2023 season, Rune reached two more Masters finals, including Monte Carlo, where he lost to Medvedev himself. Unfortunately for the Danish player, his recent performances have not met expectations; he exited all Grand Slam events last year before reaching the fourth round. He did manage to reach the semi-finals of Masters events twice but struggled to maintain consistent performance, which seems to be his major hurdle.
2025 has been rocky for Rune as well. He failed to get past the fourth round at the Australian Open and faced early exits at tournaments held in Rotterdam, Buenos Aires, and Acapulco. Nonetheless, at Indian Wells, Rune has turned his fortunes around, claiming victories over top competitors like Stefanos Tsitsipas and Tallon Griekspoor, which have surely helped boost his confidence going forward.
Medvedev's season started with some stumbles, as he had not managed to string together more than two match wins until now. His quarter-final victory over Arthur Fils signified his return to the top level of his game, showcasing his impressive defensive skills and tactical play. The tie-break during the third set of his quarter-final match highlighted Medvedev's ability to step up during tense moments, making him one of the toughest challengers on the court.
Interestingly, Indian Wells is the one Masters tournament on hard courts where Medvedev has yet to claim victory, having reached the finals twice only to fall short against the rising star Carlos Alcaraz. Medvedev’s past experience and aspirations to finally clinch the title make him fuel his ambition for this semi-final bout against Rune.
The history between these players adds another layer to this match. Their last meetings resulted in two wins for Medvedev, with one of these victories occurring during this very tournament last year. Rune has shown improvement, but he tends to struggle with longer rallies, which play right to Medvedev’s strengths. Although Rune's performance this week has clearly demonstrated his skills, he will need to play without lapses to have any chance against Medvedev.
Betting odds suggest Medvedev winning the match alongside the total games exceeding 21.5. The odds sit at 2.65, showing confidence from pundits. Yet, with Rune hitting his stride, one can only wonder how this face-off will pan out as both players look to not just make it to the finals but also claim the Masters title. Expect nothing less than fierce competition and high stakes on the court this Saturday.