MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has assured her constituents and the international community of her confidence in averting a potential tariff war with the United States. This optimism was expressed during her daily morning briefing on Thursday, just one day after her phone conversation with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Although the specifics of their discussion remain murky, Sheinbaum firmly stated, “There will be no potential tariff war,” when quizzed about the concerns surrounding U.S. tariffs.
President Sheinbaum's assurance doesn't entirely erase the unease felt by many, particularly as Trump’s earlier threats loomed large. He had signaled intentions to impose hefty tariffs — ranging from 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada to additional levies on Chinese goods — all aimed at clamping down on illegal immigration and the influx of illicit drugs such as fentanyl. Amidst this climate, the Mexican president highlighted her administration's efforts to manage unauthorized migration before it even reaches the U.S. border. She asserted, “Migrants and caravans are taken care of before they reach the border.”
While Sheinbaum's statements project confidence, it remains uncertain whether Trump's assertion of her agreement to control immigration holds any weight without clear directives. Questions swirl around whether any clear pledges were made during their discussion. Notably, previous migrant caravans, which form as groups seek safety en route to the U.S., have faced significant challenges due to crackdowns by Mexican authorities.
U.S. President Joe Biden has openly expressed his hope for Trump to reconsider his tariff plans, deeming such actions “counterproductive.” Speaking from Nantucket, Massachusetts, Biden conveyed concerns, saying, “I hope he rethinks it. I think it’s a counterproductive thing to do.” The fear of an impending tariff war worries Mexican industry leaders, especially those associated with the avocado market, one of Mexico's primary agricultural products destined for export.
Avocado growers, pickers, and packers along with various sectors are apprehensive about the possible fallout from tariffs. Higher retail prices could discourage U.S. consumers from buying Mexican avocados, directly impacting many small-scale farmers reliant on access to the American market. Mexico is the primary supplier of avocados to the U.S., so even slight changes could ripple across the entire supply chain.
Sheinbaum herself has alluded to potential retaliatory tariffs, along with plans being readied for responding to any aggressive tariff measures introduced by Trump. The ramifications of such tariffs could be vast; if enforced, tax collections could surge to approximately $266 billion — a staggering figure which doesn’t even include potential trade disruptions or retaliatory responses from other nations affected by such tariffs.
This situation has thrown many Mexican families and businesses deep within the grip of economic worry, as the future of cross-border trade hangs precariously. With so many livelihoods dependent on trade relationships with the U.S. and Canada, uncertainty is palpable.
For Sheinbaum, the stakes are high. She was elected with promises of change and progress for Mexico, aiming to stabilize the country’s economy and improve living conditions across the board. Yet, the looming threat of tariffs reignites fears of economic instability mirrored against historical contexts, which saw previous tariff disputes escalate to significant tensions. It’s worth noting, the predicament places Sheinbaum’s administration at the intersection of domestic pressures and international negotiations.
Sheinbaum’s stance, likely reflecting the sentiments of many within her administration, resonates with cautious optimism aimed at preserving diplomatic ties. The roads leading toward mutual agreements must navigate through complex socio-economic backdrops as both nations weigh their options carefully. Sheinbaum described her interaction with Trump as “excellent,” hoping to channel this goodwill toward positive outcomes for all parties involved.
With discussions continuing, both Mexico and the U.S. are embarking on delicate waters, maneuvering through policy interdependencies and burgeoning ramifications deeply rooted at the heart of North America. The outcomes remain to be seen and could set new precedents for international trade relations among neighbors.
