BANGKOK — Chinese manufacturers have reported a surge in orders this February, as importers scramble to finalize purchases before impending higher tariffs are enforced by the U.S. government. The uptick follows President Donald Trump’s announcement of tariff changes, which will see the current 10% tariff on numerous imports from China rise to 20% starting Tuesday.
According to state media, the Global Times, China is exploring both tariff and non-tariff responses as potential countermeasures against these increased U.S. tariffs. Taiwanese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Lin Jian, affirmed, "China will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard own legitimate rights and interests." The tariffs, including the cessation of the “de minimis” loophole, which exempted imports valued under $800, represent significant changes for U.S.-China trade relations, impacting businesses engaging in online consumer sales.
This strong demand appears to be reflected across China's industrial frameworks. The official purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 50.2% from 49% the previous month, indicating the economy has managed to remain above the contraction threshold. More significantly, the new orders index recorded a rise to 51.1%, bolstered by government support and businesses rushing to place orders before the tariffs take effect.
Analysts like Zichun Huang from Capital Economics noted the data suggests steady industrial production: “But growth still looks at risk of slowing this quarter, at least partially reversing the pick-up in Q4.” This indicates the resilience of Chinese manufacturing, but also highlights potential vulnerabilities as the impending tariffs will soon take hold over market dynamics.
Further supporting the upward trend, the latest Caixin manufacturing PMI surveyed smaller and export-oriented companies, hinting at similar improvements across the sector. Lynne Song of ING Economics noted, “This could be a valuable gauge of the impact new tariffs are having on the manufacturing sector. With an additional 10% tariff set to come effective tomorrow, this seems likely.”
The rising tension over trade practices brings uncertainty over the outlook for the world's second-largest economy, which grew at 5% last year, hitting Beijing's official target. The current dynamics, driven largely by international trade disputes, present fresh challenges for Chinese authorities as they meet for the annual session of the National People’s Congress.
During this session, Premier Li Qiang is expected to detail the annual work report, which will highlight growth expectations and outline strategies to boost domestic consumption—an area seen as weak following the pandemic's disruptions.
With the conclusion of China's 14th five-year plan approaching, the drive for improved domestic economic performance remains urgent. This year marks the end of Xi Jinping’s “Made in China 2025” initiative, aimed at enhancing industry capabilities to achieve global leadership within the tech sector. Within this framework, the importance of generating increased consumer spending is likely to be underscored as policymakers respond to economic headwinds.
For non-state sectors, recent moves by the government suggest more focus on private industry support, with increased expenditure likely to assist both exports and domestic demands. The results of these decisions may play out significantly across global economic platforms, raising questions about the sustainability of China’s growth amid these turbulent trade relations.
The interplay of tariff policies and manufacturing resilience will be pivotal as China's response to U.S. tariffs continues to evolve. While immediate gains can be observed amid the rush for orders, the long-term ramifications of these changes may pose greater risks as importers navigate the new geopolitical climate.