Recent developments have intensified tensions between China and the Philippines over the contested Scarborough Shoal, located in the South China Sea. On November 6, 2024, China formally announced the establishment of baselines around the scar, which it refers to as Huangyan Island. This action is seen as Beijing’s response to new Philippine legislation asserting maritime entitlements and defining sea routes, prompting China to publicly delineate areas it considers under its sovereignty.
Beijing’s decision to publish geographic coordinates for the baseline around Scarborough Shoal is significant. This publication, the first of its kind for this specific area claimed by both countries, escalates the long-standing dispute. The Chinese Foreign Ministry declared, "Huangyan Dao [island] has always been China’s territory,” dismissing Manila's recent legislative measures as violations of its sovereignty.
The Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had recently enacted two laws: the Maritime Zones Act and the Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act. These laws aim to define the Philippines' maritime zones and routes through its archipelago, which consists of over 7,000 islands. The Philippine Coast Guard Chief, Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan, expressed concerns about the potential impact of these laws on international shipping routes, noting, “We anticipate stresses because international shipping will have to adjust their routes.”
China’s latest move has sparked strong reactions from the Philippine government. A statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated Beijing's commitment to protect its maritime rights, asserting, “China firmly opposes this and will continue to take all necessary measures... to resolutely defend China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights.” This sentiment highlights the broader dispute surrounding the resources and rights to the rich fishing areas near the Scarborough Shoal.
For the past decade, Scarborough Shoal has been the flashpoint for tensions between China and the Philippines. China effectively seized control of the shoal from the Philippines in 2012, limiting access for Filipino fishermen, which has been met with protests from the Philippine government. Despite the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague declaring China’s expansive claims to the South China Sea invalid, Beijing continues to reject the ruling.
The South China Sea is one of the world’s most contested maritime regions, with overlapping claims from several Southeast Asian nations. These waters are strategically important due to their significant shipping lanes and vast potential for resources. China's assertion of near-total control over this area has raised alarms among its neighbors and drawn the attention of the United States, which supports the Philippines' claims and the aforementioned arbitration ruling.
Recent escalations have also seen China's coast guard intruding on Philippine waters, with incidents involving water cannons and vessel collisions becoming increasingly frequent. The presence of Chinese militia ships beside the Philippine island of Thitu, locally known as Pag-asa, highlights the precarious nature of maritime security as both nations prepare for potential confrontations.
China insists its baselines and claims align with international law, claiming it is merely solidifying maritime management. According to state-run media, the decision to publish these baselines was delayed to respect regional maritime relations. This claim of restraint contrasts sharply with recent actions, as almost daily encounters occur between Chinese and Philippine vessels.
The Philippine government remains steadfast, prioritizing its enacted laws which, according to analysts, do not actually expand Manila’s claims. Despite the clarity of its legal framework, Beijing's assertions of sovereignty over Scarborough Shoal and the larger South China Sea bring forth questions about the efficacy of international maritime laws.
The situation remains fluid, with regional analysts closely monitoring developments. The Philippine Coast Guard anticipates enforcement of its new laws will be complex, noting the potential strain on international shipping. Significant adjustments to maritime routes could have wide-ranging economic impacts, especially as international trade relies heavily on the stability of these shipping lanes.
Looking forward, experts suggest enhanced diplomatic dialogue between China and the Philippines is necessary to de-escalate the situation. Both nations must navigate the tricky waters of international law, regional alliances, and domestic pressures. Without constructive engagement, tensions may continue to rise, leading to unforeseen consequences not only for China and the Philippines but for the entire region influenced by policies and tensions within the South China Sea.
The international community remains watchful, as the stakes are high. Both nations are at the precipice of igniting disagreements stemming from historical legacies over territorial rights, the quest for natural resources, and the assertion of national sovereignty. The waters near the Scarborough Shoal have become more than just fishing grounds; they symbolize nationalism and regional power dynamics amid competing interests.