BEIJING, March 1 (Xinhua) -- The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China's non-manufacturing sector registered at 50.4 for February 2025, marking a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, according to official data released today.
The PMI figures, compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China, are pivotal indicators of economic activity, offering insights not only for the manufacturing industry but for overall economic health. The data showed the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2, bouncing back from 49.1 the previous month, which had sparked concerns over contraction.
"February's PMI rise reflects strengthening market demand and continuing production growth nationwide," commented Wang Peng, associate research fellow at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences. This notable uptick suggests recovery as businesses resumed operations following the Chinese New Year festivities, which occurred from January 29 to February 12 this year.
Analysts note the timing of these figures is particularly important against the backdrop of growing trade tensions with the United States. President Trump announced impending tariffs set to add 10% to many Chinese imports effective March 4, which may impact the sector's future performance.
Within the manufacturing PMI, the production index emerged at 52.5, up significantly, indicating accelerated output, alongside the new order index which climbed to 51.1. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the NBS, attributed this increase to resumed activities post-Spring Festival. "The increase signals accelerating production activities," Zhao said.
The non-manufacturing sector also showed promising signs with the PMI reaching 50.4. This increase indicates moderate expansion, particularly beneficial for services and commerce sectors. The Composite PMI, representing the overall business activity, recorded 51.1, reflecting continuous improvement across various industries.
Regarding job market indicators, the employment index stood at 48.6, showing slight improvement, though it remains below the neutral 50 mark. Meanwhile, the supply delivery time index rose to 51.0, underscoring improved logistics and timely deliveries as operational efficiencies ramped up.
Observing these figures shows potential boosts to consumer sentiment and job creation, aligning with strategic government initiatives aimed at stimulating household incomes and driving consumption. The results signify more than mere statistical figures; they embody the resilience of China's economy amid external pressures.
Despite these positive indicators, market analysts raise concerns about the sustainability of this growth. The upcoming release of private-sector focused Caixin PMI data will provide additional insights, with expectations for the manufacturing sector due on March 3 and services on March 5. Differing methodologies between the NBS and Caixin reports highlight contrasting aspects of China's economic performance, especially the focus on large state-owned enterprises versus smaller, privately driven firms.
While the NBS PMI tends to reflect stability influenced by government policy, Caixin's data often reveals more volatility indicative of market-driven conditions. Taking both perspectives offers investors and analysts two facets of the economic picture, allowing for informed decision-making and forecasting.
With the domestic situation coupled with international relations at play, traders and policymakers will closely monitor the immediate impacts of tariffs and their ripple effects throughout the coming months. The uptick seen today might suggest immediate recovery, but analysts remain cautiously optimistic about long-term repercussions from potential trade restrictions. The mixed outlook remains very much contingent on how both domestic recovery progresses and international trade dynamics evolve.
February's PMI data indicates stronger economic activity and heightened market confidence within China, potentially bolstering growth as it navigates through strategic transformations. "Such measures will help to boost economic growth and family incomes," added Zhao, reinforcing hope for recovery strategies to take root effectively.