On October 23, 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a significant meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS conference in Kazan, Russia, marking the first such interaction between the two leaders in five years. This meeting resulted in the endorsement of a previously established deal aimed at disengaging their militaries along the disputed border, thereby restoring the situation to its pre-2020 status quo.
Within a week following their meeting, both nations effectively withdrew troops from face-off areas along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The impact of this diplomatic meeting has reverberated through international headlines, signaling not only the potential for improved bilateral relations but also raising questions about its ramifications on regional stability and global power dynamics.
Analysts have characterized the Xi-Modi meeting as beneficial for both nations and suggest it serves as more of a tactical pause rather than indicating any substantial shift in their longstanding contentious relationship. While some experts credit this development to the influence of BRICS and Russia’s mediatory role, others suggest it may represent a setback for the United States' Indo-Pacific strategy.
The historical backdrop of the China-India relationship is complex; it is marked by the world’s longest and oldest disputed border, which has engendered conflict for decades. The 1962 border war and subsequent skirmishes, including standoffs such as the 70-day Doklam crisis in 2017 and the deadly Galwan Valley clash in June 2020, place the recent thaw between the two countries in stark relief.
Nationalistic leaders like Xi Jinping and Modi have fueled the rivalry since they took office, each pursuing assertive policies amid a polarizing international climate. Amidst this backdrop, India has perceived China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with skepticism, viewing it as part of China's broader strategic aims, particularly concerning its partnership with Pakistan.
Conversely, China has viewed India's engagement with the United States and its strong relationships with Japan, Australia, and other Western allies as increasingly threatening. The rise of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)—which includes the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia—has added another layer of concern for Beijing.
The economic calculus has led both nations back to engagement; following the Galwan clash, India's ban on Chinese investments adversely affected its economic growth and led to significant unemployment—especially among educated youth. This economic distress manifested politically, contributing to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party's diminished majority during the 2024 general elections.
Recognizing the need for attracting investment, India’s business community advocated for Eurasian collaboration, steering the Modi administration toward reconciliation with China. Over time, perceptions around the BRI and its potential impact shifted as India realized the importance of maintaining its trade relationship with China, which reached approximately $118 billion in 2023-24.
On the flip side, the Chinese leadership has acknowledged the strategic necessity of India's engagement, particularly as the U.S. redoubled its efforts to contain China's influence through the Indo-Pacific strategy. Modi’s decision not to enter any formal military alliances with the United States, along with the two nations' recognition of their economic interdependence, signals a growing complexity to their relationship.
The Xi-Modi dialogue captures not just bilateral intents but also reflects shifting global narratives. Notably, during this period, strengthening ties between Beijing and Moscow have painted a picture of a new multipolar world. Amidst the current war between Russia and Ukraine, consolidated Sino-Russian relations—evidenced during recent discussions at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization—portray efforts to counter Western influence globally.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's calls for preventing “external interference” reflect the broader strategic alignment with China and highlight what some term “tectonic shifts” in global politics, advocating for new centers of power to emerge. Through these cooperative efforts, Russia and China aim to solidify their strategic positioning against the U.S. and its allies.
Regional powers are feeling the pressure of these dynamics, with many democratic stakeholders seeking to maintain equilibrium against the rising influence of China and Russia. Military exercises by these two nations across strategically relevant regions signal their willingness to assert control and influence over global maritime routes.
Therefore, as the international order continues to evolve, analysts like Ghulam Ali from the Hong Kong Research Centre for Asian Studies and Dr. Monika Chansoria note the significance of this transformative time. They suggest cooperation, rather than conflict, is now seen as integral for achieving long-term objectives, both for China and India.
While the border dispute between the two nations may not see immediate resolution, the Xi-Modi meeting is being hailed as pivotal for stabilizing their future relations. Continuing economic ties, tempered by pragmatic leadership, could mark the beginning of enhanced cooperation rather than competition, setting the stage for both countries as they navigate this new global order.
