China recently announced the approval of the world's largest hydropower dam on the Yarlung Zangbo River, which runs through the Tibetan Plateau. This ambitious project, set to generate approximately 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, is positioned to have significant repercussions not only for China but also for millions living downstream, including communities in India and Bangladesh.
The announcement, reported by state media, emphasizes the dam's importance to China's climate goals, as it is expected to play a key role in advancing the country's strategies for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, addressing global climate change concerns. According to the Xinhua News Agency, "It is also of great importance for advancing the country's strategy for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and coping with global climate change." This highlights the intertwining of energy production with environmentally conscious initiatives.
Located on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo, which transforms downstream to become the Brahmaputra, the dam is projected to generate three times more electricity than the current world record-holder, the Three Gorges Dam, which produces about 88.2 billion kWh annually. This leap not only signifies China's commitment to hydropower but also its capability to potentially manipulate the flow of one of Asia's major rivers.
The estimated financial outlay for this project exceeds 1 trillion yuan (approximately $137 billion), making it unprecedented in scale within China's infrastructure development. The Power Construction Corporation of China oversees this endeavor, noting the unique engineering challenges presented by the dam’s location—a dramatic 2,000-meter drop along just 50 kilometers of the river.
While the financial and energy output benefits may seem substantial, concerns are growing among lower riparian states. Both India and Bangladesh have voiced their apprehensions relating to water security and ecological sustainability. Notably, India has expressed potential responses, including plans to construct its own hydroelectric projects should the Chinese dam proceed. Previous warnings from Indian officials stressed, "If China went ahead with such project, it could compel India to build a 10 gigawatt hydro dam" on the Arunachal Pradesh border.
Experts predict the dam could disrupt local ecosystems and alter water flows, affecting tens of millions downstream. Vishwanath Srikantaiah, water conservation expert from India, has raised alarms stating, "Any dam on a river has huge ecological consequences downstream," underscoring the burden placed upon countries reliant on these river systems for their livelihoods.
Further complicate matters is the lack of clarity from Chinese authorities concerning the number of people who may need to be relocated due to construction of the dam. Historical precedents set by major projects, such as the Three Gorges Dam—which displaced approximately 1.4 million people—raise significant questions about the local impact as this new mega-dam goes forward.
Environmental advocates are particularly concerned about the unique biodiversity of the Tibetan region, which is home to fragile ecosystems. Manshi Asher, a climate activist and researcher, articulates the potential for catastrophe, asserting, "The larger the dam, the greater the impact on the river flows." The inconsistency between Chinese official statements promising limited ecological disruption and the expected realities has intensified scrutiny.
Geopolitically, the stakes extend beyond local ecosystems. Former UN undersecretary-general Jayantha Dhanapala articulates the broader concerns, noting, "China's control over water flow presents a substantial concern for lower riparian states, as it holds the potential to affect water security, economic development, environmental stability, and geopolitical relations." This control has historically been viewed as coercive by neighboring nations, generating unease over China's intentions.
The debate surrounding this dam also echoes sentiments from other international waters. Critics are quick to draw parallels with China's construction of dams on the Mekong River, which have previously constrained water supplies to lower basin countries. The ripple effects of such infrastructural endeavors amplify worries over water-sharing agreements, with both India and China lacking formal arrangements over shared transboundary waters.
Surprisingly, China's refusal to sign the UN Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses poses additional challenges for regional cooperation. This stance has led critics to describe China's approach to international waters as fundamentally detrimental to its neighbors. They fear there may be more at play with China's plans, with suggestions of diverting waters from the Brahmaputra River to aid its multi-decade Gobi Desert water transfer project.
The impact of these developments cannot be underestimated. The situation remains tenuous and will likely evolve as construction progresses. The ramifications of the largest hydropower dam on the Tibetan Plateau will echo throughout the region for years to come, shaping the course of geopolitical relations and environmental health across national borders.
With significant investment and high stakes involved, the eyes of the international community will remain pointed toward China, India, and Bangladesh, as they navigate the complex waters of diplomacy, resource management, and environmental stewardship.
