CAPE TOWN - The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA) is gearing up for the official start of the citrus export season next month, with export volume projections that paint a promising outlook for 2025. Current estimates suggest that lemon exports will reach an impressive 32.9 million 15-kilogram cartons, marking a solid forecast aligned with the five-year average and indicating balanced market conditions.
Chairperson Gerrit van der Merwe confirmed that overall fruit quality for the upcoming season is expected to be excellent. He stated, "Exports are expected to align with the five-year average, indicating a balanced season with no oversupply or undersupply." This optimistic view is substantiated by a projected 5% increase in Navel orange exports, which are expected to reach 26.1 million cartons, up from previous years where adverse weather impacted volume.
Particular attention is also given to grapefruit exports, anticipated to grow by 6% to about 13.5 million 17-kilogram cartons. With the peak export period set for mid-April to mid-May, CGA members are poised to capitalize on these market opportunities. Meanwhile, Valencia orange exports are projected to rebound after a decline in the previous years, with expectations of a 6% increase to reach 52 million cartons.
Notably, 2025 is expected to see a diversified estimate breakdown for Navel oranges, with Early/Mid Navels accounting for 11.34 million cartons and Late Navels expected to contribute 14.75 million cartons to the total. This differentiation comes as growers recover from last year's challenges that included floods and frost, signaling improved weather conditions ahead.
However, the CGA is not without its concerns, particularly regarding logistics. Although there has been significant progress by Transnet in acquiring the necessary equipment at the ports, CEO Boitshoko Ntshabele has called for structural changes to achieve sustained efficiency. "The CGA is grateful for progress made by Transnet in terms of equipment acquisitions at the port. However, the long-term wait to achieve the needed efficiency at our ports is through the big structural change that only public sector participation can bring," Ntshabele remarked.
The CGA's Logistics Development Manager, Mitchell Brooke, further highlighted logistical inefficiencies that currently cost the citrus industry approximately R5.27 billion annually. These challenges underscore an urgent need for reform, including improved rail logistics and better collaboration between the public and private sectors. Despite these hurdles, the CGA maintains a forward-looking approach, projecting long-term export goals of reaching 260 million cartons by 2032, which could pave the way for job creation for around 100,000 individuals.
On an international front, trade relations remain tense due to ongoing issues with the European Union, particularly concerning phytosanitary measures dealing with Citrus Black Spot (CBS) and False Coddling Moth (FCM). Outgoing CGA CEO Justin Chadwick emphasized the financial burden of these regulations, stating, "The measures cost South African growers at least R3.7 billion each year and hinder market access, especially for emerging growers." These trade barriers are currently being contested in two cases brought before the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
As the CGA prepares for the 2025 season, it is also targeting new markets, particularly among younger consumers in Europe through fresh marketing campaigns aimed at increasing grapefruit consumption. With grapefruits projected to undergo a significant share of the marketing efforts, there is hope that renewed interest can foster a more robust export of this fruit category.
Moreover, early mandarin varieties are showing stable or rising export volumes, and while Nova exports are projected to decrease slightly by 2% to 4.5 million cartons, Clementine shipments are expected to enjoy a notable rise of 10% to 5.4 million cartons.
The long-term potential of South Africa's citrus industry remains a point of optimism for the CGA, as they continue to adapt and navigate the challenges ahead. With logistics, trade regulations, and quality management at the forefront, the upcoming export season offers a chance for growth and recovery.
In conclusion, the CGA’s collective efforts reflect a balance of optimism amid challenges. As the season approaches, stakeholders remain hopeful for favorable conditions that will support this year’s export ambitions and contribute to the industry's future development.
