Germany held its federal election on February 23, 2025, and the results have sent ripples throughout the political spectrum. The results indicate significant shifts for various political parties, with the CDU/CSU, under their chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, asserting themselves as the dominant force.
With over 83.5 percent of eligible voters participating, the turnout marked the highest since Germany's reunification, significantly up from 76.4 percent during the 2021 election, reflecting heightened political engagement among the electorate. According to initial estimates reported by WELT, the CDU/CSU topped the polls, achieving approximately 28.5 percent of the vote, even though they did not surpass the symbolic 30 percent mark.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) made headlines by capturing around 20.6 percent of votes, securing their position as the second-largest party. This dramatic gain places them firmly above the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which garnered just 16.5 percent, marking one of their worst performances ever. The SPD's decline has led to concerns about their future influence on German politics.
Interestingly, the results from Sachsen-Anhalt and other eastern states showcased the AfD's rising popularity. The party’s fusion of rhetoric appealing to right-leaning voters appears to have paid off handsomely, as they more than doubled their previous electoral figures. Reports indicate the AfD received a combined total of 34 percent of votes from eastern Germany, outpacing both the SPD and the Greens collectively.
The electoral framework permits voters two distinct votes: one for individual candidates and one for parties. This methodology incentivizes parties to form coalitions, especially with the surviving parties needing to achieve over five percent of the total vote to gain seats, except for those winning three direct mandates. Therefore, the dynamics of coalition-building will be of utmost significance, particularly due to the exclusion of others from cooperating with the AfD.
The next notable question revolves around potential governmental coalitions. Without the FDP, whose future remains uncertain after receiving just 4.5 percent of votes, the CDU/CSU may lean toward forming alliances with both the Greens and the SPD, known as the 'Kenia coalition' due to the colors representing those parties. Other possible combinations will depend on careful negotiations among parties eager to secure stable governance following this contentious election.
Looking backward, the results echo various shifts within the electorate since the last election. The SPD previously won 25.4 percent of the votes back in 2021, which now seems like only a distant memory. The voting patterns clearly reflect dissatisfaction among constituents, particularly concerning social policies and economic challenges faced nationwide. Political analysts speculate whether this dissatisfaction translates to wider repercussions for the government’s approach moving forward.
Meanwhile, other minor parties, including Linke and BSW, managed to maintain sufficient support, with Linke expected to secure several direct mandates primarily from urban strongholds like Berlin.
Analysts regard these results as indicative of broader European sentiments, where rising populism has shaken conventional political structures across the continent. With the AfD labeled as a potential extreme-right party, their growing influence evokes disquiet among traditional political rivals and even some voters worried about their democratic values.
Moving forward, the state of the German parliament will inevitably change due to reforms implemented prior to the election, resulting in the overall size of the Bundestag shrinking significantly. Gone are the overhang and balancing mandates which previously inflated the seat numbers and rendered complex alliances necessary. Now, each candidate elected must represent their party effectively within the limits of public voting strength.
Overall, the 2025 federal elections reveal more than just party affiliations; they signal changing dynamics within the German electorate, the rise of populist sentiments, and altering alliances—all factors likely to shape the upcoming legislative agenda and influence Germany’s position within Europe.