Canada is stepping up to play its role on the global stage, particularly as tensions rise and trade opportunities flourish across Southeast Asia. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently headed to Laos for key discussions, under the looming shadow of the Israel-Hamas war, which threatens to overshadow the planned trade talks.
The Canadian government has its eyes set on securing substantial trade agreements with Indonesia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) by 2025. "We're aiming for economic growth and political cohesion with our Southeast Asian partners, especially during such tumultuous global events," remarked Trudeau. These efforts form part of Canada’s larger strategy to deepen its engagement with Southeast Asia, previously seen as merely sporadic.
Vina Nadjibulla, who serves as the vice president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, has noted the complex geopolitical dynamics at play. With Canada's increasing commitment to trade, she elaborated on the significantly impacted reputations of Western nations—particularly at odds with predominantly Muslim countries where public sentiment tends to lean toward the Palestinian perspective during the current Middle East conflict.
Nadjibulla pointed out, "Canada and its allies are facing what can be termed as a reputational hit across Muslim-majority nations. The challenge lies not just within these nations’ borders but extends to how they perceive Western relations with the Middle East." The essence of unity against predicted claims of indifference to global human rights struggles is at the forefront of Trudeau's discussions at the ASEAN summit—marking one of the organization’s most significant meetings for this year.
ASEAN, which stands for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, is composed of ten member countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia. The bloc not only serves to facilitate trade but also aims to promote peace and stability among its members—qualities increasingly challenged by China’s assertive stance on territorial claims and territorial waters.
This year's discussions are happening against the disturbing backdrop of heightened tensions following the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas on Israel—a turning point prompting firmer stances from several ASEAN countries. Indeed, Malaysia is expected to take the helm of the ASEAN chair next year and has been particularly vocal against Israel's actions, utilizing the summit as leverage to amplify calls for accountability. Kai Ostwald, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia, remarked, "Malaysia's upcoming chairmanship will undoubtedly influence the tone at this year's summit, especially with the re-ignition of discussions on the Palestinian cause. They intend to shine a light on perceived injustices."
Trudeau's endeavors for engagement aren't solely with Indonesia but extend across the entire ASEAN membership, with Canada having upgraded its status to strategic partner —the highest recognition available to non-member countries. By asserting its intentions and commitment to bolster economic ties, Canada joins the race to secure free trade arrangements amid stiff competition from China, which currently holds the title of ASEAN’s largest trading partner.
Canadian officials recognize the growing apprehension within Southeast Asia to lessen their economic reliance on China. "ASEAN countries are not ignoring China; they're attempting to de-risk their supply chains, especially by diversifying partnerships," noted Roland Paris, Trudeau's former foreign policy adviser. He emphasized, "Our presence and trade arrangements can not only strengthen ties but also expand access for these countries to the North American market, providing much-needed alternatives."
But trade isn't the only focus for Canada during this turbulent time. Experts stress the importance of countering the destabilizing presence of China, particularly evidenced by its increasing maritime aggression. With incidents like the recent deployment of Chinese vessels to intimidate Southeast Asian nations, concern looms large over free navigation and the conduct of relations on the high seas. Nagy pointed out, "Countries within this region recognize the importance of mutual support for security, particularly against the backdrop of China’s growing assertiveness. We can't just watch; we must take responsive measures to protect local interests and rights."
The South China Sea stands as one of the world's most contested waterways, with the Chinese asserting expansive claims against neighboring nations like the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam. Given its importance as both a trade route and natural resource basin, tensions here ripple across global markets. To date, around $5.5 trillion in trade annually flows through these waters—a fact not lost on Trudeau, whose government's strategic calculations include safeguarding these economic lifelines.
Nadjibulla underscored the importance of maritime tech, declaring, "Canada has already begun offering technological assistance to the Philippines, including dark vessel detection technology, which will allow them to track Chinese activity within their jurisdiction. We have the capabilities and expertise to support these nations, ensuring compliance with international norms." The dark vessel detection technology is primarily used to monitor illegal fishing activities, but the implication extends to tracking aggressive movements by unauthorized vessels, thereby sustaining regional stability.
Canada’s cooperation with ASEAN countries takes on another layer when tackling cyber threats as well. Chinese cyber-attacks—primarily targeting intellectual property theft—compound the complexity of bilateral relations. Maj.-Gen. Dave Yarker of the Canadian Armed Forces emphasizes, "The secret to effective online defense lies within cooperative frameworks. Our experience and skills could be shared to fortify the cyber resilience of Southeast Asian nations against external threats."
The overarching sentiment reveals Canada's aim not only to align itself as Southeast Asia’s friend during times of crisis but to present itself as a viable alternative to China. "We have the opportunity to engage comprehensively with nations at the ASEAN summit and showcase our intention as reliable allies," emphasized Trudeau as he seeks partnerships based on mutual interests, reflecting both trade aspirations and security frameworks.
Observers agree—moving forward, it’ll be incumbent on Canada to navigate these delicate realms carefully. They must engage without overstepping boundaries, maintaining respect for the purpose the ASEAN was founded on—peace, security, and economic development. The states within the ASEAN face the challenge of recalibrated relations amid rising US-China tensions, pursuing diplomatic channels without provoking militaristic developments. Canada's role could reinforce this balance, bridging connections and fostering mutual prosperity.
Only time will substantiate whether Canada's diplomatic endeavors will yield fruitful trade agreements and partnerships focused on women, youth empowerment, or technological and industrial progress. Yet, Trudeau’s moves within the complex multilayered framework of Southeast Asian relations highlight aspirations for collaborative ventures, promising change and opportunity to both Canada and its ASEAN allies.
