OTTAWA — Canada is now facing significant questions about its defense strategy, as Prime Minister Mark Carney announced plans to review the country’s $19 billion (CAD) contract for 88 F-35 jets from Lockheed Martin, the biggest military procurement deal ever made by Canada. This review, sparked by recent tensions with the United States and concerns about over-reliance on American military support, has elicited varied responses from defense officials and industry leaders.
Carney, sworn in as Prime Minister on March 14, 2025, emphasized the urgency of reassessing the contract during his visits to international forums. He stated, "It is clear our security relationship ... is too focused on the United States. We must diversify," highlighting Canada’s dependence on American defense spending, which accounts for approximately 80% of its military budget.
While Canada remains committed to purchasing the first 16 F-35 aircraft and has allocated the necessary funding, the newly elected leader has called for the Department of National Defense (DND) to evaluate whether the F-35 purchase serves the best interests of both Canadians and the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). Laurent de Casanove, press secretary for Canada’s Minister of National Defense, Bill Blair, noted, "To be clear, we are not cancelling the F-35 contract, but we need to do our homework..."
This reconsideration follows President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies, which include significant tariffs on Canadian imports and claims about making Canada the 51st state, raising political tensions north of the border. "Trump isn’t wrong on everything," said Eric Martel, CEO of Bombardier Inc., during his remarks at a business event. His comments reflect industry worries over reciprocity for potential U.S. defense contracts should Canada pursue alternatives to the F-35 jets.
Bombardier Inc. has contractual commitments with the Pentagon for the provision of communication and surveillance aircraft. Martel expressed concerns during the same remarks on March 12, stating, "Cancelling the F-35s might be a good idea, but we need to think about it." The aerospace manufacturer’s worries are compounded by the looming uncertainty of tariffs, especially since more than 60% of Bombardier’s business is dependent on the U.S. market.
Despite the F-35 controversy, Canada’s defense industry stands at a crossroad. The review opens the door to alternatives such as Sweden’s Saab Gripen, which lost the competition to replace Canada’s aging CF-18 fleet. Carney’s government is considering not just the cost but also the possibility of increasing domestic production of alternative aircraft, taking advantage of local capabilities. “Given the need for value for money, it’s prudent for us to review other options, especially those with significant Canadian production potential,” he stated.
According to reports, Ottawa’s move to reassess its deal might also disrupt the international supply chain of the F-35, particularly as Canada is the first nation to openly contemplate scaling back its commitments to the program amid rising tensions with Washington. Lockheed Martin, responding to the concerns from Ottawa, stated it values its existing partnership with Canada, asserting, "The F-35 is the most advanced, survivable and connected fighter aircraft..." The company referred procurement questions back to the Canadian government.
While concerns have escalated around trade relationships, Canada’s approach to its defense spending is also under scrutiny. Analysts are noting significant risks, especially considering Trump’s recent cuts to military intelligence sharing with Ukraine. David Perry, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, pointed out, "There are many people rethinking right now, 'How reliable is access to American military technology going to be?'" These questioning sentiments underline the sentiment within Canada’s defense circles over the fragility of current arrangements.
Although the final decision on the F-35s is pending, Ottawa is continuing with its procurement actions, as it plans to extend the lifespan of its aging Boeing CF-18 fleet—some of which are nearing 40 years old—until 2032, the year when all 88 F-35s are expected to be operational. Historically muffled concerns over military spending are now surfacing amid pressures from successive U.S. administrations demanding greater defense contributions from Canada, emphasizing the shifting dynamics of North American security alliances.
The portrayal of defense spending as more than just budgetary numbers reflects growing fears of geopolitical instability following Brexit, U.S.-China tensions, and heightened defense budgets across Europe, putting added pressure on Canada. With nations like Portugal also reconsidering their fighter jet procurements under the shadow of changing U.S. foreign policy, Ottawa is under enormous pressure to align its defense policies with its national interests.
Looking forward, the Canadian government’s actions will be closely watched not just at home but also abroad. Every decision on defense contracts will send ripples through international markets and production chains. The rhetoric of self-reliance invoked by Carney could lead to broader reforms as Canada seeks to cultivate its defense industrial base—a potential long-term benefit amid immediate uncertainties.
Underlining this strategic shift, Carney concluded during his recent statements, "We must make sure we are doing this right. It is imperative for Canada to navigate these tumultuous waters with care and foresight." The reevaluation of the F-35 contract not only speaks to immediate economic and military interests but also signifies broader intentions to redefine Canada's role and commitments on the world stage as geopolitical landscapes continue to evolve.
