Canadian politics is currently awash with tension and uncertainty, primarily focused around Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership. A formal petition to dissolve Parliament was submitted last week by Conservative MP Michelle Ferreri, representing Peterborough—Kawartha. The petition is not just about seeking the dissolution of Parliament; it lays bare multiple grievances against the Trudeau government, prominently citing issues like the deepening cost-of-living crisis and annual federal debt servicing charges exceeding $40 billion.
According to the petition, Canada’s current debt levels now surpass the combined debts of all previous governments. This financial strain, coupled with the rising housing costs, has become a focal point within the Conservative’s push to unseat Trudeau. The petition explicitly highlights how housing and rental costs have doubled, resulting in burgeoning tent encampments across the nation.
Interestingly, housing affordability has also been brought to the forefront through recent cabinet appointments, particularly with Nathaniel Erskine-Smith taking over as the new housing minister. Ferreri’s grievance document doesn’t spare any punches, referencing several controversies involving the current administration, labeling them as the “ArriveScam Coverup,” “SDTC Coverup,” and the “Indigenous Procurement Scandal,” among others.
One significant grievance listed is the current gridlock within Parliament. The petition states, "The House of Commons has been effectively paralyzed since October 2, 2024," due to the Liberal government’s reluctance to provide unredacted documents requested by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP). Amid these claims, Ferreri insists Canadians – and not merely the NDP leader – should be the ones determining the country's leadership. Her petition has already garnered over 50,000 signatures.
On the political front, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced on Friday the effective end of his party’s support for the Liberal government, which originally was part of a power-sharing agreement expected to last until 2025. Singh plans to introduce a no-confidence motion when Parliament reconvenes on January 27, underlining the urgency of the situation.
With mounting pressures surrounding Trudeau’s leadership, speculation about the ramifications of such political maneuvers has intensified. Particularly, the question arises: what happens if Trudeau resigns? If he were to step down, the Liberal Party would need to name an interim leader quickly, initiating the process for what could turn out to be months-long leadership convention, creating significant uncertainty within the party and government.
Unlike the swift removals seen in other parliamentary democracies like the UK, the Liberal Party doesn’t have formal mechanisms for quickly ousting its leader. Therefore, if members of his cabinet and lawmakers call for Trudeau to resign, it may force him to reevaluate his position, especially with increasing pressure from both the Conservative and NDP parties.
There are also serious questions about whether Trudeau could be forced out by Parliament itself. Government officials must maintain the confidence of the House of Commons, and any failure to do so—particularly during financial votes—could result in immediate calls for elections. Currently, the parliamentary schedule has closed for winter, with the House returning on January 27, the earliest any confidence vote could occur may not be until late February or March.
Despite the external pressures, the ultimate decision-making power remains with Governor General Mary Simon, who can act with the constitutional authority but is unlikely to do so if Trudeau maintains the confidence of the Commons. Philippe Lagasse, constitutional expert at Ottawa's Carleton University, stated, "The governor general won't dismiss a prime minister who still holds the confidence of the Commons." This highlights the complex nature of Canadian politics and governance where constitutional and parliamentary procedures intertwine.
For Trudeau to potentially prolong his tenure, proroguing Parliament might offer him some breathing room. While this act would formally end the current parliamentary session, pushing back the return of the House, it risks alienation within his party, especially if he remains prime minister, increasing discontent among his legislators.
The situation is fluid and dynamic, with each political action generating waves of impact across Canadian governance. With the NDP now seeking to topple the Trudeau administration and Conservatives clamoring for decisive action against existing government challenges, the political discourse surrounding Canada is poised for significant developments. Only time will tell how these fractures and debates will shape the next chapter of Canadian politics.
