With rising geopolitical tensions and mounting questions about U.S. defense policy, Canada and European nations reassess their reliance on American-made fighter jets, particularly the F-35. Conversations around alternative options, including European-made aircraft, have gained traction, as military leaders and analysts warn of potential repercussions from U.S. veto power over foreign military sales.
The impetus for this shift comes against the backdrop of President Donald Trump's provocative foreign policy, which has left NATO allies feeling insecure about the U.S. commitment to mutual defense. These concerns were placed front and center as multiple countries re-evaluate their defense strategies in the wake of ongoing conflicts, especially the war in Ukraine.
As of March 2025, Canada is facing a significant crossroads regarding its military expenditure. New Prime Minister Mark Carney, just weeks into his tenure, has directed Defence Minister Bill Blair to conduct a comprehensive review of Canada's purchase of 88 F-35s, a deal valued at over $19 billion. Initial payments for 16 of these jets have been made, yet the looming question remains whether this investment is in Canada’s best strategic interest.
Echoing sentiments expressed by Carney, Portugal’s defense minister, Nuno Melo, commented on the influence of “recent U.S. positions” on Portugal’s own defense acquisitions. The outgoing government is eyeing alternatives to replace its aging fleet of F-16s, and discussions are underway about whether the European defense industry could better meet its needs in the current geopolitical landscape.
The F-35 program itself is costly, with each unit priced at approximately $85 million, while the total lifetime expense could surpass $1.7 trillion due to maintenance and operational costs. The sheer scale of spending required has fostered serious hesitation among nations that are now considering the implications of being tethered to U.S. defense technology.
As part of this re-examination, prime contractors like Lockheed Martin are aware that growing tensions could lead to decreased demand for the F-35 among international buyers. Many countries are weighing potential alternatives, including the Swedish Gripen, Eurofighter Typhoon, and French Rafale. While these aircraft may lack the cutting-edge stealth features of the F-35, they provide viable options without the American dependency.
Concerns also arise around the purported existence of a “kill switch” in the F-35, which has sparked speculation that the U.S. could potentially disable these aircraft during conflicts. Although Pentagon officials have denied such claims, fears continue to loom regarding U.S. control of essential software updates and parts, which could hinder an ally's operational capacity in times of need. Winslow T. Wheeler, a former Congressional staffer, underscored that these technological dependencies create vulnerabilities for countries relying on American military hardware.
In light of these concerns, nations like Canada may find that seeking partnerships with European contractors could offer a more autonomous defense posture. Having recently confirmed engagements with French and British officials, Carney's administration is exploring building a fighter jet in Canada, which could mitigate American interference while fostering Canadian manufacturing capabilities.
In addition to the Canadian scenario, international trade tensions and tariff threats from Trump have elevated the urgency for countries to assess their defense strategies. Canada has already been the recipient of steel and aluminum tariffs, and concerns persist over potential 25% tariffs on various Canadian exports. This development underscores the precarious nature of being overly reliant on the U.S. for critical military supplies.
The dynamics extend beyond Canada and Portugal. The European Commission is compiling a strategy to revitalize its own defense industry amid uncertainties regarding U.S. foreign policy. Germany, too, has indicated a desire to expand its defense budget significantly, signifying a shift towards greater European military autonomy.
As the days unfold, defense analysts and officials alike stress that the ability to develop indigenous capabilities is more crucial than ever. While the F-35 presents an advanced aerial combat platform, the recent turbulence in the U.S.-Europe relations prompted by Trump cannot be ignored. Increasingly, European and allied nations might find themselves at a strategic impasse unless they pivot towards more collaborative military manufacturing, aligning with the fundamental goal of NATO—maintaining collective security.
Ultimately, the conversation is shifting from a reliance on U.S. defense systems to exploring alternatives that might allow for more national control over defense capabilities. Whether Canada or Portugal fully withdraws from the F-35 agreements remains to be seen, but the implications of their decisions will resonate throughout NATO, impacting the coherence of the alliance at a critical juncture.
