On September 10, 2025, the sky above eastern Poland became the latest flashpoint in a conflict that has long threatened to spill beyond Ukraine’s borders. Nearly 20 Russian drones, part of a massive strike campaign against Ukrainian targets, crossed into Polish airspace, triggering a flurry of alarms, scrambling of jets, and a renewed debate over just how close NATO and Russia are to direct confrontation. According to The Economic Times, several of these aerial objects were shot down by Polish and NATO aircraft, with officials describing the event as an “unprecedented provocation.”
It didn’t take long for the alliance to respond. On September 12, NATO announced Operation Eastern Sentry, a stepped-up, multi-domain defensive initiative meant to bolster its eastern flank. The operation, coordinated by Allied Command Operations, brings together air, sea, land, and other capabilities and will run for an undisclosed period, according to NATO officials. The goal? To reassure allies rattled by ongoing airspace violations and to deter further spillover from Russia’s war on Ukraine. “The initiative will make clear that, as a defensive alliance, we are always ready to defend,” NATO chief Mark Rutte told reporters, as cited by Newsweek.
Eastern Sentry is not just a show of force on paper. Denmark has contributed two F-16 fighter jets and an anti-air warfare frigate, France has sent three Rafale jets, and Germany has deployed four Eurofighters. The operation emphasizes integrated air policing and counter-drone capabilities, drawing on fighter jets and allied support across the alliance’s eastern flank. The message is clear: NATO is watching, and it’s ready to act.
But the incursion didn’t stop at Poland. On September 13, Romania—another NATO member sharing a long border with Ukraine—reported a Russian drone entering its airspace. The incidents have fueled calls from within the alliance for a more robust response, including the controversial idea of imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, in an interview published on September 15 by Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, said, “Technically, we as NATO and the EU would be capable of doing so, but it’s not a decision Poland can make alone; it can only be made with its allies. The protection of our population—for example, from falling debris—would of course be greater if we could combat drones and other flying objects beyond our national territory. If Ukraine were to ask us to shoot them down over its territory, that would be beneficial for us. If you ask me personally: We should consider it.”
Ukraine has been calling for a no-fly zone since the earliest days of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. After the recent drone incident, Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s presidential office, argued that the incursion into Poland “proved the need to create a no-fly zone over his country,” adding, “This will be protection not only for us, but also for all neighbors.” Yet, Western leaders have long been wary of such a move, warning that it could place NATO forces in direct combat with Russian air assets—risking escalation to a broader, potentially nuclear, conflict.
Instead, the alliance has opted to supply Ukraine with air defense systems, missiles, and aircraft, hoping Kyiv can enforce its own de facto no-fly zone. As Newsweek explains, this approach is seen as a way to help Ukraine defend itself without crossing the red line that could trigger a direct NATO-Russia war.
That red line was underlined—boldly—by Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council and a close confidant of President Vladimir Putin. Medvedev, known for his hardline rhetoric and social media posts that often verge on nuclear brinkmanship, issued a stark warning on September 16. “The implementation of the provocative idea of… creating a ‘no-fly zone over Ukraine’ and the ability for NATO countries to shoot down our UAVs, will mean only one thing, a war between NATO and Russia,” he wrote, as reported by The Economic Times. In a separate post on Telegram, he added, “Things must be called by their proper names!”
Medvedev’s comments were not limited to military threats. He also signaled Russia’s intent to pursue legal actions against EU countries if they attempt to seize frozen Russian assets—a move Western leaders have discussed as part of sanctions enforcement. The message from Moscow was clear: any further escalation, whether in the skies over Ukraine or in Western courtrooms, would not go unanswered.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov echoed Medvedev’s hard line, accusing NATO of already being “de facto involved in this war” because of its direct and indirect support for Kyiv. The Kremlin’s position, reiterated since the outset of the invasion, is that any country joining a no-fly zone would be considered a participant in the conflict.
Not everyone in NATO is on the same page. While Poland and some Baltic states have pushed for a more assertive response, others remain cautious. The debate is complicated by the technical and political challenges of enforcing a no-fly zone, which would require NATO forces to engage Russian aircraft directly—a scenario most Western leaders have sought to avoid at all costs.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio weighed in after the September 10 incident, calling the Russian drone incursions into Poland “an unacceptable and unfortunate and dangerous development.” He told reporters, “No doubt about it: the drones were intentionally launched. The question is whether the drones were targeted to go into Poland specifically.” Rubio’s remarks reflect a broader unease within NATO about Russia’s intentions and the risks of miscalculation.
Meanwhile, Medvedev did not hold back in mocking NATO’s Eastern Sentry operation. “This, it seems, is all that remains of the ‘coalition of the willing,’” he said, dismissing the alliance’s efforts as insufficient. He also took a swipe at Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur, who had just announced $117 million in military aid to Ukraine, quipping, “The smaller the country, the more cocky and stupid the bosses are.” Such rhetoric, while inflammatory, underscores the deepening animosity between Moscow and the West.
As Operation Eastern Sentry gets underway, the alliance is walking a tightrope—determined to protect its members and deter further Russian aggression, yet wary of taking steps that could ignite a larger war. The debate over a no-fly zone, once theoretical, now feels uncomfortably close to reality as Russian drones continue to test the boundaries of NATO’s resolve.
With the skies over Eastern Europe more crowded and contested than ever, leaders on all sides face hard choices. The coming weeks will test not only NATO’s military readiness but also its political unity, as the alliance grapples with how far it is willing to go to defend its members—and where, exactly, it will draw the line.
