On April 7, 2025, the Brazilian stock market faced a turbulent start as the Ibovespa future opened down 1.60%, settling at 125,485 points. This decline was largely attributed to growing fears of a global recession ignited by escalating trade tensions. The situation was further exacerbated by a significant drop in Asian stock exchanges, particularly in Hong Kong, which recorded its largest single-day fall since 1997.
Market observers are closely monitoring the ongoing trade war, particularly the consequences of the tariff policies implemented by the United States under President Donald Trump. These actions have raised concerns about retaliatory measures that could deepen the economic rift and lead to a worldwide recession. Roberto Padovani, the chief economist at BV, articulated these concerns, stating, "The worry is about retaliation to American tariff policy, which reinforces fears of trade wars and recession globally. The economic agenda hasn’t helped either.”
As international markets grapple with uncertainty, the EWZ, an exchange-traded fund that mirrors the performance of major Brazilian stocks, fell by 3.31% during pre-market trading. This decline signals a challenging day ahead for the Ibovespa, especially in light of the significant drops in commodity prices.
In the commodities sector, oil prices dipped over 3% on the same day, marking a continuation of the downward trend observed in the previous week and reaching levels not seen since 2021. The price of both WTI and Brent crude oil fell by 1.36% early in the morning. Concerns about a potential global recession have weakened demand forecasts for these commodities.
Meanwhile, iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange also reflected this bearish sentiment, closing down 3.29% at 720 yuan per ton, equivalent to approximately US$ 98.86. The combination of these declines in both oil and iron ore prices has left investors wary, as they navigate through a landscape of increasing economic uncertainty.
On the domestic front, the Focus Bulletin from the Central Bank updated key economic indicators, revealing that the median inflation forecast for Brazil in 2025 remains at 5.65%, which is above the target ceiling of 4.50%. The report also indicated that the Selic rate is projected to hold steady at 15% for 2025, with subsequent years seeing rates of 12.50% in 2026, 10.50% in 2027, and 10% in 2028.
In corporate news, several Brazilian companies have been making headlines. Ambipar received an extension from the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) until May 7, 2025, for its trustee to present the registration of a public offering aimed at increasing participation in the company. This development is crucial as it highlights Ambipar's ongoing efforts to enhance its market position.
Additionally, Banco Regional de Brasília (BRB) announced its acquisition of Banco Master, a strategic move that will create the ninth largest bank in Brazil based on credit portfolio. BRB’s president, Paulo Henrique Costa, shared insights during an interview on Band TV, emphasizing the significance of this transaction for the bank's future.
In other corporate updates, Engie Brasil Energia successfully completed its 14th issuance of simple debentures, raising a total of R$ 2 billion with the assistance of Banco BV, which served as one of the coordinators for this issuance. This capital will likely support Engie’s ongoing projects and initiatives in the energy sector.
Grupo Mateus also made strides in its expansion efforts by inaugurating two new stores in Ananindeua and Marituba, located in the state of Pará. This move aligns with the company’s strategy to enhance its footprint in the region.
In a significant transaction, Equatorial announced the sale of its electricity transmission division to the Canadian investment firm CDPQ, with the deal valuing the assets at up to R$ 9.4 billion. This sale signifies Equatorial's strategic shift in focus and may impact its future operations.
Petrobras, Brazil’s state-controlled oil giant, has made progress in its environmental licensing process for exploring the Brazilian Equatorial Margin. The completion of the Fauna Care and Rehabilitation Unit in Oiapoque, Amapá, marks a critical step in this endeavor, highlighting the company’s commitment to sustainable practices.
Lastly, Sequoia Logística e Transportes approved an increase in its share capital, ranging from R$ 50 million to R$ 130 million, with plans to issue between 6.25 million and 16.25 million new shares at a price of R$ 8 each. This capital increase is expected to bolster Sequoia’s operational capabilities.
In the financial sector, Banco Pine announced a distribution of interest on equity amounting to R$ 18.75 million, translating to a gross value of R$ 0.0823389 per ordinary and preferred share. This distribution is a positive sign for investors as it reflects the bank’s profitability and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
As the week progresses, investors will be keeping a close eye on global economic developments and their potential impact on the Brazilian market. With uncertainty looming over trade relations and commodity prices, the landscape remains complex and dynamic.
