Delhi's 2025 Assembly elections seem poised for unexpected turns, with exit polls indicating significant victories for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the expense of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), raising questions about the future political dynamics of India's capital city.
According to NDTV's Poll of Exit Polls, the BJP is projected to claim 41 of the 70 available seats, marking its triumphant return after two decades. Meanwhile, AAP's forecast appears grim, with the party expected to secure only 28 seats. The Congress party, historically stronger, struggles even more, forecasted to take home just one seat, up from none.
These predictions resonate through various agencies' projections. For example, People's Pulse estimates the BJP could win between 51 and 60 seats, showcasing their strong electoral standing. Other agencies including DV Research and Chanakya Strategies also expect the BJP to comfortably surpass the 39-seat threshold needed for majority control. This shift, if the predictions hold true, would disrupt the stronghold AAP has had on Delhi since 2015 when it clinched 67 seats, and again with 62 seats in 2020.
Despite these disheartening forecasts, AAP remains defiantly optimistic. Party leader Sushil Gupta suggested skepticism about exit polls, stating, “This is our fourth election... every time exit polls did not show AAP (winning, but) Arvind Kejriwal has worked for the people of Delhi. We will see the results in favour of AAP and we will form the government...” AAP's history indicates they often outperformed dire predictions, boasting earlier wins against the odds.
More troubling for AAP is the extent of potential seat losses. Polling data from DV Research hints at AAP winning as few as ten seats, leading many to draw comparisons to their previously dominant electoral status. The public sentiment appears to have shifted, with some experts attributing this change to the fallout from corruption allegations and the subsequent arrest of key AAP leaders over issues related to the liquor licensing policy.
While the BJP has campaigned vigorously, promising various free services, the Congress party's predictions reveal its fall from grace, indicating it would face another significant loss. Some estimates suggest Congress could be left with zero seats, reflecting the party’s enduring struggles to delineate itself from its historical dominance.
Adding to this discourse, Sandeep Dikshit, son of former Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, shares insights about public sentiment on India TV, voicing concerns about the underestimation of the AAP. “Exit polls cannot be fully trusted. I believe AAP will form the government,” he claimed, urging critics to reconsider AAP’s grassroots campaigning successes.
Equally, Congress's Pramod Tiwari criticized both BJP and AAP for supposed electoral malpractice, lampooning their reliance on vote-buying tactics, and urging voters to seek change. He believes this election may favor state-reliant parties over larger, established ones.
Voting took place on February 5, 2025, with official counts set to complete on February 8, creating anticipation across the political spectrum. Over 1.55 crore voters had the opportunity to express their preferences among 699 candidates spanning party lines, sharpened by promises of free services and benefits. Current projections indicate the voting threshold revolves around 36 seats for majority control, adding weight to the forecasts.
What adds to the intricacies of this electoral climate is the heavy regulation surrounding exit polls, governed strictly by the Election Commission to prevent undue influence on voters. The release of poll data following the election serves as both guidance and accountability, yet the efficacy of such predictions remains contentious.
Reflecting on the historical patterns of exit poll accuracy, it becomes clear their reliability varies drastically. For example, back during the 2020 elections, exit polls correctly forecasted AAP winning 62 seats after previous predictions suggested AAP would lead with 59-68 seats. Conversely, misjudgments occurred during the 2015 polls, where the party's seat count vastly outstripped the average projection.
With February 8 drawing closer, the discourse surrounding the exit polls will intensify, with major media outlets and analysts dissecting the validity of these pre-election forecasts. The outcome of the elections will not only shape Delhi's political future but possibly set trends for future national politics, especially considering the BJP's growing prominence post-general elections last May.
Whether the AAP can once again defy expectations or if the BJP will reclaim its turf remains to be seen. Amid the fluctuated optimism from party leaders and the stark predictions from exit polling agencies, Delhi stands on the edge of transformative political change.