Bitcoin is bracing for a bearish open on March 31, 2025, potentially marking the weakest first quarter performance since 2018. This downturn is largely attributed to rising anxiety among traders regarding U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of fresh tariffs, including a 25% tax on imported cars and looming tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry. These developments have shaken investor confidence, particularly as Trump has dubbed April 2 as "Liberation Day," a date when reciprocal tariffs are expected to be assigned to various countries.
As of March 30, Bitcoin's price had slipped to $81,656, marking its seventh consecutive day of lower lows. Stock futures reflected this bearish sentiment, with the DOW futures down by 206 points and the S&P 500 futures down 0.56%. The S&P 500 index is currently down 6.3% for the month, while the Nasdaq and DOW have recorded losses of 8.1% and 5.2%, respectively.
The economic landscape has taken a turn for the worse, with last week’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data indicating a higher-than-expected uptick in inflation. Furthermore, the Conference Board’s March consumer confidence data revealed a monthly confidence index at a 12-year low, raising concerns about consumer sentiment.
Goldman Sachs has also raised its 12-month recession probability from 20% to 35%, citing a lower growth outlook and a sharp deterioration in household and business confidence. "The upgrade from our previous 20% estimate reflects our lower growth baseline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies," Goldman Sachs analysts noted.
Despite the gloomy outlook, some analysts see a silver lining in Bitcoin's continued accumulation by institutional investors. Data from CryptoQuant shows that inflows to Bitcoin accumulation addresses have been rising throughout March, indicating that while many retail investors may be fleeing, larger players are still confident in the long-term potential of the cryptocurrency.
Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy, took to X on March 30 to share his thoughts on Bitcoin's trajectory, posting his famous orange dots Bitcoin chart and stating, "Needs even more Orange." This sentiment reflects a belief among some investors that the downturn may present buying opportunities.
On the broader crypto front, Bitcoin is not alone in its decline. Major cryptocurrencies like XRP and Cardano’s ADA have also seen significant losses, with XRP dropping 5% and ADA following suit. Solana, Dogecoin, and Ether have also experienced declines ranging from 2% to 3%. The CoinDesk 20 index, which measures the performance of the largest digital assets, is down 2.6%.
As global stock markets opened lower for the fourth consecutive day, investors are bracing for Trump’s upcoming announcement of new tariffs on April 2. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong was down 1.7%, the Nikkei 225 fell by 3.8%, and Korea's KOPSI index was down 3%. In contrast, safe-haven assets like gold have reached all-time highs, and U.S. Treasury yields have dropped due to increased demand as portfolio managers adopt cautious strategies amidst the uncertainty.
In the crypto market, Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $196 million last week, even as Ether ETFs faced outflows exceeding $8 million. Meanwhile, approximately $751.2 million in unlocks are scheduled for this week, with a significant increase in May when around $4.4 billion in tokens will be unlocked.
As traders navigate this turbulent market, the sentiment remains cautious. The anticipation of Trump's tariff announcement looms large, and the potential impact on global trade is a significant concern. With speculation about tariffs targeting up to 25 countries, the market is bracing for possible retaliation from major economies, which could further destabilize the economic landscape.
In conclusion, Bitcoin's recent price movements reflect broader economic anxieties and shifting market dynamics. While institutional investors continue to show interest, the immediate outlook remains uncertain as traders await critical developments in U.S. trade policy and economic indicators.
