Bitcoin (BTC) neared $90,000 at the March 24 Wall Street open as analysis warned of conflicting signs and signals.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $88,772 on Bitstamp — its highest levels since March 7. Bitcoin followed stocks by opening the week higher after almost a month of sell-side pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite index were up 1.6% and 2%, respectively, at the time of writing.
Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter explained the upside as a positive reaction to news that the US government was easing the severity of new trade tariffs set to become effective on April 2. It quoted sources reporting that “sector-specific tariffs” would emerge instead of blanket rules. “The S&P 500 is now up +75 points on the news,” it added.
Crypto market momentum had already gained thanks to rumors of the US potentially using gains on its gold reserves to purchase BTC. “If we actually realize the gains on [these holdings], that would be a budget-neutral way to acquire more Bitcoin,” Bo Hines, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, said in an interview with the Crypto in America podcast last week.
In his latest market analysis on March 24, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, suggested that the news had not fallen on deaf ears. Despite the relatively modest BTC price uptick, he wrote in an X thread, “the announcement that the administration was considering selling Gold Reserves to buy Bitcoin certainly gave speculators some hopium.” He emphasized that with gold at all-time-high (ATH) levels, and BTC undergoing a correction, it could be an opportune time to profit.
BTC needs key support reclaim to avoid new lows. Alan laid out two key prerequisites for sustained BTC price upside. The 21-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at $84,674, as well as the yearly open at around $93,300, must both be reclaimed as support.
“With conflicting signs and signals, how can we tell if Bitcoin is returning to a path to ATH territory or if this is a developing bull trap? The answer is knowing what your validation/invalidation levels are,” he explained. The yearly open, in particular, would be crucial, with Alan arguing that unless it is reclaimed, there is an increased likelihood for the price to retest the lows. “If/when that happens, I'll be buying those dips when buying resumes,” he concluded.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin stabilized at around $87,000 on Tuesday, March 25, after extending a mild recovery over the past days. A Crypto Finance AG report highlighted that the crypto market responded to the broader risk momentum. Their report explained that futures open interest remains subdued, reflecting a lack of demand for leverage. The same applies to options, where 30-day BTC implied volatility is trading at 46v—a 25v discount to the last 30-day realized volatility—implying a ±5.5% move over the next month.
This sets key support at around $82,000 and resistance at around $91,500.
Bitcoin's recovery was further supported by the announcement that Michael Saylor's Microstrategy (MSTR) had acquired 6,911 BTC for $584.1 million at an average price of $84,529 per Bitcoin.
“The only way Bitcoin won’t collapse is if Microstrategy continues buying indefinitely,” said Chief Economist & Global Strategist Peter Schiff in an X post. He warned that at some point, it would be impossible for MSTR to keep buying without selling any stock or borrowing more money. Such a scenario could lead to both Bitcoin and MSTR crashing, sending MSTR into bankruptcy.
Adding to the caution among traders, the defunct cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox moved $1 billion worth of BTC on Tuesday. Arkham intelligence data revealed that on this day, 893 BTC were moved to the Mt. Gox Hot Wallet, while 10,608 BTC were transferred to another wallet. Traders often regard large transfers of Bitcoin to wallets as a signal of an intent to sell, leading to bearish sentiment.
Despite these challenges, Bitcoin price had also broken and closed above its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $85,500 on March 23, rising 4.45% during the period leading up to Monday. At that point, BTC hovered around $87,000 on March 25. Should BTC find support around its 200-day EMA at $85,539, it could extend the recovery to retest the psychological level of $90,000. A successful close above this level could extend an additional rally toward its March 2 high of $95,000.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads 51, above its neutral level, indicating increasing bullish momentum. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator showed a bullish crossover last week, suggesting a trend ahead.
Yet, if BTC fails to hold at and close above $85,000, the price might decline further to retest its next support level at $78,258.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is designed to serve as a digital currency, eliminating the need for third-party participation in transactions. Its market continues to fluctuate among various factors from both traditional and cryptocurrency-specific news.
Traders and investors are keeping a close watch on the developments, as key economic indicators and market responses gear up for potential changes ahead.
