On November 16, 2024, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met for what is likely their final direct conversation before the political transition takes place in January. Conducted on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit held in Lima, Peru, this encounter arrives amid heightened tensions between the two nations, marking a pivotal moment for their relationship as it enters uncertain territory.
Both leaders came prepared for serious discussions, yet the longstanding issues between the U.S. and China loomed large. Cybersecurity tensions, trade disputes, issues concerning Taiwan, and the relationship with Russia were on the agenda. The Biden administration has long been concerned about China's growing assertiveness, especially with its military maneuvers surrounding Taiwan, which U.S. officials view as increasingly provocative.
Just prior to their meeting, America was rattled by reports alleging China had orchestrated cyber hacks against U.S. officials, which added fuel to the fire of distrust. This backdrop of conflict has fed perceptions of China as both competitor and adversary. Speaking candidly, Jake Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Adviser, also painted the transition to the next administration as fraught with potential instability, emphasizing the need for clarity and predictability.
Undoubtedly, Trump’s impending return to the presidency casts another shadow over U.S.-China relations. Trump has pledged to adopt aggressive tactics, threatening to impose tariffs upwards of 60 percent on Chinese goods. His previous administration had already set the stage for heightened tensions by introducing various tariffs and restrictions aimed at stifling China's technological advancement and economic power.
Shen Dingli, an international relations scholar from Shanghai, remarked on China’s desire to avoid unnecessary turmoil before Trump officially resumes power. His sentiment echoes Xi's assertion during their meeting: “China is ready to work with a new U.S. administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation, and manage differences.” This could signify China's recognition of the challenges and disruptions the incoming Trump administration might usher in.
Still, President Biden framed the conversation within the broader scope of their shared history and diplomatic exchanges over the past four years. During his remarks, he reflected on the ups and downs of the Biden-Xi relationship, asserting the importance of continued dialogue.
Despite diplomatic reassurances, there is considerable skepticism about Xi's willingness to heed Biden's concerns. The reality remains stark; recent conducts by China—such as its increasingly sympathetic stance toward Russia during its invasion of Ukraine—contribute to rising apprehension within the U.S. government. Biden aimed to address these pressing issues, hoping to underline the importance of stability and restraint moving forward.
Both leaders’ teams also recognized the significance of trade discussions, particularly the U.S. investments in Chinese technology sectors. The Biden administration had previously imposed restrictions aimed at limiting U.S. investments attributed to perceived security risks. According to Ryan Berg from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, much of Xi’s agenda could be aimed at gaining reassurances for American businesses, which have faced challenges amid the perception of deteriorated conditions for investment.
Counter to Xi's negotiation attempts, the Trump administration’s efforts would likely lean toward stricter measures, adding pressure to reform the current trade dynamics. Already, companies like Nike have begun diversifying suppliers, lessening reliance on Chinese manufacturing. This shift spotlights growing economic apprehensions underpinning relations as the two nations grapple with differing visions for global order.
Biden’s approach has been one aimed at preventing conflict, demonstrated through shuttle diplomacy efforts intended to thaw relations. The approach has been undercut by incidents such as the infamous Chinese surveillance balloon and direct accusations labeling Xi as a dictator. Allegations against China concerning increases in sales of military technology to Russia also paint Beijing as directly complicit with Moscow amid the war.
While the meeting concluded with no resolution to the long-standing issues, there was recognition from both sides of the mounting complexity surrounding their relationship. China’s activities within the Asia-Pacific region—particularly investments and military posturing—have caused trepidation among U.S. officials and allies alike.
It is uncertain how Xi will respond to Biden's requests, especially as China asserts its posturing internationally. Concurrently, as the Biden administration wraps up, it rests on the cusp of transition, with many pressing issues left unresolved. Although Biden has highlighted the creation of open communication channels, his impending exit raises questions about whether progress is sustainable.
“The incoming administration is going to have to focus on managing this relationship right out of the gate,” Sullivan concluded thoughtfully, underscoring the gravity of the task at hand.
For Biden, the meeting symbolized not only his long tenure of more than 50 years shaping domestic and foreign policy but also highlighted the arduous path of managing U.S.-China relations amid fierce competition. Biden’s bond with Xi encapsulates years of political evolution, but now he must hand over the responsibility of navigation within murky waters.
Each side left the meeting with little indication of resolution, yet both appear cautiously aware of the stakes involved. The road forward for U.S.-China relations remains fraught with tension as the specter of Trump's administration looms large, likely influencing both strategy and tactics moving forward. What lies ahead will be dictated not only by political agendas but by the shared interests and conflicts inherent within the complex dynamics of the world stage.
At this moment, as President Biden concludes his administration, his reflections on the past are intertwined with the uncertainties of the future; the relationship he sought to stabilize may soon be challenged by the very policies he hoped to amend or avoid altogether. All eyes will be on the incoming administration as it confronts the pressing reality of managing one of the most significant relationships on the global stage.
