UK universities are grappling with significant challenges as the number of Indian students applying to study there has dropped by over 20%. This alarming decline, recorded at 20.4%, is primarily attributed to stricter visa regulations, increasing concerns about job opportunities following studies, and unsettling safety issues, particularly after some high-profile incidents involving foreign nationals.
The Office for Students (OfS) reported this sharp decrease, highlighting the figures concerning Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS), which plummeted from 139,914 to 111,329 between the academic years 2022-23 and 2023-24. This shift is particularly concerning for UK institutions, as Indian students have increasingly become a dominant source of tuition income, overtaking even Chinese students.
With the drop, experts are deeply concerned about the financial strain this will place on universities, which are already experiencing tight budgets exacerbated by external factors like Brexit and inflation. The OfS has sounded alarms about the potential income reduction of approximately £3.4 billion by the 2025-26 academic year if remedial measures are not put in place. Up to 72% of UK universities could be left operating at a deficit if trends continue.
Contributing to this decline is the conservative government's policy changes, which have tangled students and agencies alike. Many Indian students have voiced their frustrations over the current policy barring them from bringing dependents, along with rising salary thresholds for skilled worker visas and muddled post-study work visa options. Sanam Arora, the Chair of the National Indian Students and Alumni Union (NISAU) UK, emphasized the compounded effect of these policies, stating, "Many reasons contribute to the decline, including confusion surrounding the post-study work visas and the Conservative ban on dependents. People are worried about jobs and whether they can support their families back home."
The current crisis is not only affecting Indian applicants but also reflects broader trends across other countries. For example, Nigeria has seen its own applications drop by 44.6%. Notably, as the UK struggles to maintain its position, countries like Canada, Australia, and the Netherlands are capitalizing on this situation, offering more attractive and student-friendly policies, including clearer pathways to residency post-study and potentially easier work opportunities.
Ian Dunn, Provost of Coventry University, commented on the severity of these changes, noting the declining number of European students post-Brexit as yet another burden for universities trying to balance their finances. Dunn suggested alternative strategies being explored, including expansion of overseas campuses – exposure to markets like Egypt, India, and China where many institutions are now active. "The drop-in international students has dramatically worsened the crisis for us," he stated. Dunn urges universities to reassess their approaches toward student safety and visa policies to boost recruitment efforts moving forward.
While some UK universities scramble to attract prospective students through various measures, many are uncertain about how the government will respond to these mounting concerns. The new Labour government recently raised the tuition cap for domestic students to £9,535, but experts argue this still falls significantly short of necessary funding adjustments to combat the decline and could leave universities financially vulnerable.
Experts believe they must find ways to bolster support for employability and clarify the limitations surrounding post-study work visas to stay competitive. Amit Tiwari, President of the Indian National Students’ Association (INSA) UK, expressed skepticism about the future of UK universities if significant changes aren’t made: “Unless the government addresses these issues, the outlook for UK universities is bleak as they rely heavily on Indian students.”
Given this predicament, it remains to be seen what steps the UK will take to maintain its reputation as a premier educational destination. With international students providing much-needed financial support to universities, the fallout from this sharp decline could reshape the higher education sector widely.
