Bangladesh has been facing unusually warm winter weather during January 2025, traditionally the coldest month of the year. This year, instead of frigid temperatures and heavy fog, the country has seen higher-than-normal temperatures, causing concern among meteorologists and the public alike.
January is often marked by the relentless chill typically associated with winter, yet this month has brought distinctly milder conditions. According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, the average minimum temperature this January was recorded at 13.6 degrees Celsius, higher than the typical seasonal average of 12.5 degrees Celsius. The last time such warmer conditions were observed during January was in 2016.
During this month, cities like Dhaka experienced vividly warmer temperatures, sparking questions about the realities of winter. Emran Hossain, who sells blankets, quilts, and rugs at Karwan Bazar, expressed his frustration with the change, stating, "Why would people buy these? It’s not even proper winter." His experience reflects broader economic trends; with less demand for winter clothing, businesses are taking a hit.
Meteorological observations also noted the diminished presence of moisture, with levels unusually high for winter. Meteorologist Muhammad Abul Kalam Mallik pointed out this year’s moisture content of 68% is significantly elevated, as typical winter air rarely exceeds 20%. This moisture inhibits the flow of cold air, resulting markedly less wintery conditions.
Adding to these observations, no severe cold waves were reported throughout January, which typically would not only prompt frosty air but also incidents of dense fog. This winter has seen only occasional moderate cold events, with the first and only significant drop occurring around January 10, when temperatures fell to 7.3 degrees Celsius.
Meteorologist Mallik stated, "The reduction of fog greatly influenced the perception of cold this year." January saw fog last for just three days, compared to previous years where it persisted for at least seven days. This year, visibility remained remarkably higher, punctuating the warmer conditions.
Investigations traced the reasons for this warmer-than-usual January to changes attributable to climate dynamics, including the neutral phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the lack of high-pressure systems, and reduced thundercloud formation. These factors combined to suppress the usual cooling affects one might anticipate during this winter months.
Interestingly, the impacts of the warmer conditions extend beyond discomfort. Public health experts are warning of increased health risks associated with milder winters, particularly concerning the spread of dengue virus. Dr. Mustuq Husain warned, "If winter intensity and duration continue to decline, there is a heightened risk of increased dengue outbreaks, as the Aedes mosquito population thrives in warmer conditions."
With agriculture also at risk, Shawkat Osman, director of the Crop Production Division at the Department of Agricultural Extension, elaborated on how inadequate winter temperatures affect crops. He highlighted, "Lower temperatures are crucia for flowering in crops such as wheat, potatoes and mustard," thereby framing the agricultural impact of changing weather patterns as potentially disastrous. While some heat-resistant varieties of wheat exist, other key crops like potatoes and mustard still remain vulnerable.
The warm weather has also caused increased energy consumption. With decreased cold conditions, residents have turned to fans and air conditioners, raising electricity demand—a situation exacerbated by rising fuel imports affecting foreign currency reserves.
The stark contrasts with historical weather patterns raise alarms among experts about the potential long-term effects of climate change. Md. Bazlur Rashid, Senior Meteorologist at the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, noted, "The actual winter conditions did not align with international climate models," underscoring the discrepancies between expected and current climatological data.
Analyses from the World Meteorological Organization indicate record-high global temperatures, underscoring a grim narrative for future winters. Reports cite 2024 as the warmest on record, with temperatures 1.55 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels. The continuous rise of global temperatures denotes an enduring challenge for tropical nations like Bangladesh, where its unique climate conditions become increasingly hindered by global rise.
Looking forward, if these warmer conditions persist, Bangladesh may grapple with more severe health risks, crop cultivation challenges, and energy demands. The signs seem clear: what’s dubbed winter no longer adheres to its traditional character, raising queries about the future of this season among the local populace.