The tragic crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8432, which diverted and fell near Aktau, Kazakhstan on December 25, 2023, is now at the center of growing controversy amid allegations of Russian involvement.
The flight, scheduled to move from Baku, Azerbaijan to Grozny, Chechnya, was carrying 67 individuals, with at least 38 lives lost on impact. Initial reports have triggered inquiries hinting at the possibility the plane was struck by shrapnel from a Russian missile during aerial activities linked to the Ukraine conflict.
Azerbaijani government sources have "exclusively confirmed" to Euronews the belief the crash was caused by a Russian surface-to-air missile. This conclusion has raised alarm, as it resonates eerily with the tragic Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 disaster of 2014, when similar military misfires resulted in the deaths of all 298 passengers.
Christo Grozev, Bulgarian investigative journalist, argued there's "almost no question or doubt" the aircraft was hit by shrapnel, citing video footage with puncture holes matching missile damage. He elaborated, stating there's a "logical hypothesis" of an anti-aircraft missile explosion occurring near the aircraft midflight.
Witnesses revealed chaotic scenes as the flight was allegedly diverted due to drone activities over Grozny, prompting speculation the plane's GPS was intentionally jammed during the flight. According to sources reported by Euronews, the recommendation to reroute could have been strategically aimed to result in the plane crashing over the sea, ensuring all evidence sunk with it.
Despite claims from Russian authorities indicating the plane's diversion was necessitated by unexplained "Ukrainian combat drones" dealing strikes on civilian infrastructure, many analysts have pointed out inconsistencies within their narrative. Dmitry Yadrov of Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency noted on Friday the closed airspace over Grozny and attributed the crash to bad weather—a claim met with skepticism from the international community.
Ukrainian officials actively refuted the Kremlin's assertions, accusing them of deceit. Ukraine’s foreign minister emphasized Russian media had "lied about the cause of the crash," asserting their conduct was deliberately aimed at creating chaos and covering the real story behind the crash.
Justin Crump, CEO of risk advisory company Sibylline, indicated this theory of the plane being shot at fits “the best theory” among the available evidences. He underscored the urgency of active Russian defense systems during the flight's approach to Grozny. He did not insinuate purposefulness but expressed concerns over the condition of Russian air defenses.
The impact of this disaster has compelled Azerbaijan Airlines to halt flights to several Russian destinations, including Sochi and Volgograd, until the investigation reaches definitive conclusions. Concurrently, the airline's commitment to compensatory actions was disclosed: families of the deceased should expect 40,000 manats (around $23,500), with injured parties receiving 20,000 manats (approximately $11,800).
Political pressures mount within Twitter discussions as Azerbaijani lawmakers advocate for accountability from Russia. MP Rasim Musabekov outlined, “They have to accept this, punish those to blame... promise this won't happen again,” reflecting the strong sentiments reverberated across the region.
Investigators have recently published preliminary results from investigations highlighting the crash stemmed from physical and technical external influences, putting Russian military actions front and center. While awaiting formal confirmations, there looms potential for prolonged diplomatic tension as parties strive to take responsibility for this incident.
A joint commission involving Azerbaijani, Kazakh, and Russian representatives is now tasked with unraveling the events leading to the crash. Significantly, Azerbaijan's law enforcement will reportedly not have forensic investigative access, raising concerns over transparency.
Calls for exactitude and accountability resound through multiple platforms, as authorities and public alike remain attentive to each development surrounding the crash investigation. The specter of additional tragedies arising from military actions showcases the nuances—military and commercial aviation regulations must engage to prevent reoccurrences of this nature.
With investigations underway and heightened scrutiny directed at regional military elements, this disaster could redefine air travel safety protocols, especially within tumultuous airspaces interconnecting military theaters and civilian travel lanes.
