On April 16, 2025, ASML Holding NV, the Dutch semiconductor equipment giant, announced its first-quarter results, revealing a mixed performance that raises concerns about future demand amidst a turbulent economic backdrop. The company reported net bookings of €3.94 billion ($4.47 billion) for the first three months of 2025, falling short of analysts' expectations of €4.89 billion, according to a Reuters report. This shortfall signals potential challenges in the semiconductor sector, which is heavily influenced by ongoing global economic uncertainties.
In terms of financial performance, ASML's net sales reached €7.74 billion, slightly below the anticipated €7.8 billion, while net profit came in at €2.36 billion, surpassing the expected €2.3 billion. The company's gross margin also showed a positive trend, standing at 54.0%, which was above the guidance provided earlier. CEO Christophe Fouquet expressed optimism about the demand outlook, stating that it "remains strong" with artificial intelligence (AI) being a key driver of growth. However, he cautioned that "uncertainty with some of our customers" could lead ASML to the lower end of its full-year revenue guidance.
ASML has set its revenue forecast for 2025 between €30 billion and €35 billion, but the company is wary of external factors that could impact this projection. Fouquet pointed out that tariffs are "creating a new uncertainty" that could affect the semiconductor supply chain, particularly in light of recent announcements from the U.S. government regarding trade policies. "This is a dynamic I think we have to watch very carefully," he noted.
The semiconductor industry has been on edge in recent weeks due to U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariff plans, which could significantly influence the market. On April 13, 2025, Trump and his trade officials stirred confusion by indicating that there would be no tariff "exception" for the electronics industry, which includes crucial components like smartphones and semiconductors. This was a shift from previous announcements that suggested temporary exemptions for these products.
In a related development, the U.S. Commerce Department has initiated a national security investigation into semiconductor imports, which could lead to further trade measures. This investigation is part of a broader effort to assess whether additional tariffs are necessary to protect national security interests, adding another layer of complexity to ASML's operating environment.
Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, ASML remains a pivotal player in the semiconductor industry, particularly with its cutting-edge extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are essential for producing advanced microchips. The company noted that AI continues to be the primary growth driver, creating a shift in market dynamics that benefits some customers while posing risks for others. "It has created a shift in the market dynamics that benefits some customers more than others, contributing to both upside potential and downside risks as reflected in our 2025 revenue range," Fouquet explained.
ASML's performance in the first quarter reflects a broader trend in the semiconductor market. The company reported a total of 73 new lithography systems sold in Q1 2025, a decline from 119 units in Q4 2024. This drop in sales, along with a decrease in used lithography systems sold (only 4 units in Q1 compared to 13 in Q4), has raised concerns about the overall demand for ASML's products.
Looking ahead, ASML expects its second-quarter total net sales to range between €7.2 billion and €7.7 billion, with a gross margin between 50% and 53%. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led the company to adopt a cautious approach in its forecasts, as it navigates a complex global economic landscape.
In addition to its financial results, ASML announced plans to declare a total dividend of €6.40 per ordinary share for 2024, reflecting a 4.9% increase compared to 2023. The company also purchased approximately €2.7 billion worth of shares under its ongoing share buyback program, which is set to continue through 2025.
ASML's stock has shown resilience amidst market volatility. Analysts remain largely bullish on the company, with 38 ratings categorized as strong buy or buy, 14 as hold, and only two as sell. The anticipated earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter was projected at €5.74 on revenues of €7.77 billion, indicating a strong outlook despite current uncertainties.
As ASML prepares for its upcoming investor call on April 16, 2025, at 15:00 Central European Time, the company will provide further insights into its performance and outlook. The call, which will include discussions with CEO Christophe Fouquet and CFO Roger Dassen, is expected to address the implications of recent tariff announcements and the overall market dynamics affecting the semiconductor industry.
In summary, while ASML's first-quarter results reflect a solid financial performance, the company faces significant challenges ahead, particularly related to tariffs and market uncertainties. The ongoing demand for AI-driven technology may provide some relief, but ASML must remain vigilant as it navigates these complexities in the semiconductor landscape.
