Arsenal is set to host PSV Eindhoven at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday, March 12, 2025, at 8 PM UK time, with the Gunners entering the match with overwhelming confidence following their record-breaking 7-1 victory against the Dutch side last week. The first-leg triumph saw six different players score for Arsenal, showcasing their attacking prowess and placing them on the brink of another Champions League quarter-final appearance.
The first leg, played at PSV's Philips Stadion, was truly extraordinary. Arsenal’s performance was not just good; it was historic. Their 7-1 victory is the largest away win during the Champions League knockout stages, setting a significant precedent. Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta praised his team's display, highlighting their “flow and courage,” and expressing gratitude for their collective performance. "I really enjoyed the match, so thank you to the players for their performance," Arteta noted after the game.
With such a substantial lead, the pressure is almost entirely off Arsenal, allowing Arteta to manage his squad strategically. Key players such as Gabriel Jesus, Takehiro Tomiyasu, and Kai Havertz are sidelined for the remainder of the season, and Bukayo Saka is still weeks away from recovery. Gabriel Martinelli has recently returned from injury, playing 30 minutes as a substitute during Arsenal's latest Premier League game, a 1-1 draw against Manchester United on March 9.
Despite the setback against United, Arsenal's confidence remains high, aided by their historical dominance over PSV. The Dutch side’s losses continue to mount, and they haven’t kept a clean sheet away from home since March 2016, allowing them to concede two or more goals per game on average during their last 15 away Champions League matches. To put it mildly, they have had their fair share of struggles, particularly against top English teams.
Interestingly, Ethan Nwaneri, at just 17 years and 348 days, became the youngest player to score for Arsenal in consecutive Champions League appearances when he netted his goal against PSV. No player has achieved three Champions League goals before their 18th birthday, which gives the young talent considerable hype as he continues to grow within the squad. This record adds another narrative to the match, showcasing Arsenal's promising youth and depth.
The lack of pressure on Arsenal to perform at their absolute peak could lead to some shuffling of the lineup. Arteta is expected to rest players who have been overworked, like Gabriel Magalhaes and Jurrien Timber, paving the way for those with less game time, including Jakub Kiwior and Raheem Sterling. One probable highlight of the starting XI is Ben White, who may be set to start for the first time this calendar year. Other potential starters include Jorginho, Oleksandr Zinchenko, and even Neto could make his season debut as goalkeeper.
For PSV, morale might have been boosted by their recent 2-1 win over Heerenveen, but recovering from such a heavy defeat is no easy feat. It seems unlikely they could correct their mistakes from the first leg. Their last trip to London ended poorly, and they have won just four times out of 20 away games against English teams, including the notable defeat against Arsenal. If PSV is to challenge the Gunners, they will have to overcome their evident defensive vulnerabilities.
This match holds additional importance as it is Arteta's 20th Champions League fixture, potentially making him only the 10th manager to secure 13 wins from their first 20 games. Historically, seven of the previous nine managers who achieved this milestone eventually lifted the Champions League trophy. Meanwhile, Arsenal sits as one of the favorites to win the competition, with betting odds reflecting their strong standing. Only Liverpool and Barcelona have higher chances to lift the trophy than Arsenal according to prevailing simulations.
Prediction models favor Arsenal heavily, with simulations giving them around 63.7% chances of winning the match. A draw—a scenario Arsenal will happily accept to progress to the next round—is pegged at 19.2%, leaving PSV with just 17.1% to save face.
Arsenal's last two Champions League games saw them score 10 goals, moving close to becoming only the second English team to hit the double-digit mark across two legs. They could replicate the feat last achieved by Manchester City against Schalke two years ago, which raises the stakes for this second leg.
Overall, this matchup carries significance not only for the immediate results but for setting the tone as Arsenal looks to make strides through the latter stages of the tournament, with European glory once again within reach. Whether PSV can muster the courage to challenge the Gunners remains to be seen, but the odds—as history shows—are heavily stacked against them.