The April 2025 U.S. Visa Bulletin has brought concerning news for Indian green card applicants, with the EB-5 visa category experiencing significant retrogression. This retrogression marks the priority date moving back over two years to November 1, 2019. Coupled with this development, the U.S. has acknowledged increased demand and usage of available visa numbers, particularly affecting applicants from India and China.
According to the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), changes to the Visa Bulletin directly stem from the soaring demand for EB-5 visas, particularly from two of the largest applicant pools: India and China. The latest adjustments signal challenges for many prospective investors who have traditionally eyed the EB-5 category as their pathway to U.S. residency.
So, what exactly is visa retrogression? Visa retrogression occurs when the U.S. Department of State shifts the priority date backward, meaning applicants who once qualified for visa processing must now wait longer. The reasons behind this shift stem from the balance between the number of visas available and the demand from immigrants seeking green cards. This latest adjustment has highlighted the fragility of the immigrant visa process amid fluctuated interests.
On the brighter side for Indian applicants, the Visa Bulletin showed some advancements for the EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 categories. For example, EB-1 (Priority Workers) saw its cutoff date move forward by 15 days to February 15, 2022. EB-2, dealing with professionals holding advanced degrees, also advanced by one month to January 1, 2013. The EB-3 category for skilled workers progressed by two months to April 1, 2013.
Although progress exists, the setback for the EB-5 category stands out distinctly, causing many to reconsider their immigration plans. Investor immigration counsel has cautioned applicants to stay updated with revised priority dates, as waiting times are extended considerably.
Specifically, the EB-5 Unreserved category, which is typically highly sought after by investors, reflects substantial demand among Indian nationals. This category is associated with investing large sums of capital—typically $1 million or more—in U.S. businesses, thereby creating job opportunities. Each year, only a limited number of these EB-5 visas are made available, resulting in competitive pressure as demand soars.
The Visa Bulletin is structured with two key sections: Dates for Filing and Final Action Dates. The Dates for Filing specify when applicants can submit their adjustment paperwork, whereas the Final Action Dates predict when those applications are likely to be reviewed and approved. For fiscal year 2024, the limit for family-sponsored preference immigrants is pegged at 226,000, with specific allocations to each category. When shortages occur, as seen with the EB-5 program, retrogression becomes inevitable.
Recent trends have shown retrogressions occurring, especially around the close of the fiscal year when many visas are allocated and issued. This can lead to unexpected delays and frustrations for applicants who might have anticipated faster processing under the EB-5 program.
Looking forward, experts warn potential adjustments may lead to additional complications for the EB-5 category. If demand continues to rise, there is the possibility of additional caps on worldwide EB-5 applicants, which could affect global investors as well.
The ramifications of the recent Visa Bulletin updates reach far beyond just numbers. For many Indian investor applicants, the extended waiting period raises uncertainties surrounding their investments and timelines for residency. These barriers may prompt some individuals to explore alternative visa categories or seek legal assistance to navigate this complex process effectively.
Since President Donald Trump took office on January 20, 2025, he has instituted several immigration-related orders, alongside the recent announcement of the EB-5 retrogression. These developments have caused many potential applicants to view the EB-5 program with caution, particularly with rumors of potential replacements by unconventional solutions like the proposed 'Gold card' for $5 million.
The 'Gold card' concept proposes to streamline routes for high-net-worth individuals interested in obtaining U.S. residency, underscoring yet another change on the immigration horizon.
For now, prospective green card applicants must maintain awareness of their priority dates and immigration status, which may require revisiting their strategies. Whether continuing with existing plans under the EB-5 category or adjusting to alternative options, adaptability will be key.
Overall, the April 2025 Visa Bulletin serves as both a beacon of hope and a reminder of the persistent hurdles still standing before Indian green card applicants. It's imperative for individuals seeking U.S. residency to consult with immigration attorneys and stay updated on policy changes, as even small shifts can significantly impact their future.