The German political party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is doubling down on its controversial stance of leading the country out of the European Union (EU) and the Euro currency if it gains power. This commitment is encapsulated in the party’s recently circulated draft program for the upcoming federal elections set for 2025. Party members are set to vote on this draft at their congress planned for early January 2024.
Echoing promises made during its European election campaign last summer, the AfD declares it is necessary for Germany to exit the EU to form what it refers to as a 'new European community.' This alternative framework would replace the EU with what the AfD envisions as a "Europe of fatherlands"—a union of states focusing on market collaboration and shared economic interests.
Notably, the AfD also aims to withdraw Germany from the Eurozone, which has been operational since 2002, and replace it with what they call a "transfer union." Within its election programming, the party acknowledges the challenges posed by such proposals, indicating it would seek to renegotiate relationships with all EU member states. The AfD is pushing for public referenda on these issues, aware of the constitutional obstacles they face, particularly since Germany’s membership to the EU is enshrined within the constitution, the Grundgesetz.
Constitutional experts suggest any declaration for Germany to exit the EU would face severe legal hurdles, needing a two-thirds majority to overcome its current commitments—a 'Dexit' appears fraught with complications.
The declarations from the AfD come against the backdrop of sharp criticism from major economic institutions. The German Economic Institute (IW) has projected severe economic fallout should Germany pursue this course: their research estimates potential losses totaling €690 billion, alongside nearly 2.5 million job losses, resulting from abandoning of the EU and Euro. They assert the ramifications of such decisions could mirror the combined impacts of the recent COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis.
Further condemning the plan, the German Association for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (BVMW) labeled it as "economic kamikaze mission." They emphasized the Euro's importance, pointing out it significantly simplifies export processes across EU boundaries, reducing uncontrollable risks for businesses.
AfD representative Ronald Gläser rejected these claims, asserting, "Yes, Germany profits from the EU, but we believe we can secure those benefits through alternative agreements." His perspective raises questions, especially as he likens the criticism around potential economic disasters to the failed narratives surrounding Brexit. Gläser implores skeptics by referencing the success of the Swiss economy, which operates independently of EU membership yet continues to engage productively with European markets.
The IW's findings also draw comparisons with the Brexit experience, noting regions of the UK with economic structures similar to those of Germany are predicted to face dire economic crises post-exit. Hubertus Bardt, IW’s executive director, cautioned, "We could be up to 5.5% poorer five years from now if we leave the EU, leading to foreseen significant losses for businesses relying heavily on EU markets and suppliers."
Despite these economic warnings, the AfD presses on. The party's anti-EU roots run deep, fueled by nationalism and anti-globalization sentiments—a legacy from its inception during the Euro crisis when it critiqued EU bailout measures. Over the years, the party has shifted rightward, intensifying its opposition to immigration, yet maintain anti-EU rhetoric.
Current polling indicates the general public sentiment toward the AfD's proposition of a 'Dexit' remains largely negative. A survey from the Konrad Adenauer Foundation revealed approximately 87% of Germans would vote to remain within the EU if asked through a referendum. This disparity raises the question: why bring such unpalatable options back to the forefront?
Gläser insists the party is not swaying to public polls but is committed to what he describes as necessary action for the country's future. Political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder from the University of Kassel suggests their stance is consistent with the party's nationalistic ideology, arguing, "The AfD's skeptical approach toward EU and UN reflects their belief systems against larger governing bodies, seeing them as threats to the true will of the people."
Schroeder, nonetheless, postulates doubts over the seriousness of the AfD’s intent to replace the EU with alternative international partnerships, pondering if it is merely rhetoric aimed at gaining traction within minor oppositional vistas. He considers the AfD’s position as somewhat cynical—a gamble on the future rise of Euro-skepticism across other nations, seeking to capitalize on growing discontent within the European Union.
The landed effects of the AfD’s rhetoric and proposals on the broader German and European political landscapes merit continuous scrutiny as the party’s narrative develops, hinting at potential clashes and shifts within European politics.
