Inside the swirl of political drama and cultural debate that has come to define the Trump era, a quieter but highly consequential battle is unfolding over the future of marijuana in America. As of August 2025, President Trump is reportedly on the verge of a decision that could reshape the legal and economic landscape for cannabis nationwide: whether to reclassify marijuana as a Schedule III drug under federal law, a move that would make it less criminal, though not fully legal, in the eyes of the U.S. government.
According to reporting by The New York Post, Trump is leaning toward a compromise that would see marijuana moved from its current Schedule I status—where it sits alongside heroin and LSD as a substance deemed to have no accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse—to Schedule III, which includes drugs like anabolic steroids. Such a shift would not mean outright legalization, but it would mark a dramatic change in federal policy, opening the door for the burgeoning cannabis industry to access traditional banking and financial services, something that has long been out of reach due to federal restrictions.
This decision, sources say, is expected within weeks. Trump’s calculus appears to be influenced by a mix of political, business, and cultural factors. The cannabis sector is booming, with annual revenues estimated at $40 to $60 billion, and public opinion has shifted decisively in favor of reform. According to a recent Gallup poll, about 68% of Americans support marijuana legalization, while Pew Research polling at the start of 2025 found that only 10% of Americans opposed legalization in any form, with a whopping 87% supporting either medical or recreational legalization—or both.
Yet, as The Hill reports, the issue is far from settled within Trump’s own camp. There’s a deep divide among his advisers and supporters. On one side, MAGA loyalists like former Florida congressman Matt Gaetz see marijuana rescheduling as a way to expand the Republican base, especially among working-class voters and communities where cannabis use is prevalent. “President Trump would cement [these voters] for Republicans for 25 years by ‘rescheduling’ marijuana,” Gaetz said. “Obama always wanted to do it but didn’t have the balls.” He added that Biden, distracted by other issues, missed another opportunity for generational change.
On the other hand, some conservatives in Trump’s circle remain staunchly opposed, citing concerns about the cultural impact of marijuana and the increased potency of modern cannabis products. As The New York Post notes, many believe that today’s marijuana is far stronger than the joints of previous generations, raising fears about dependency, mental health risks, and the potential for cannabis to serve as a gateway to more dangerous substances. Trump himself is famously a teetotaler and has long positioned himself as a law-and-order president, cracking down on quality-of-life issues in Washington, D.C., including the pervasive smell of marijuana.
Despite these reservations, Trump has shown a willingness to embrace policy shifts when they serve his broader political aims. He has previously performed high-profile reversals—such as his embrace of cryptocurrency deregulation during the 2024 election campaign—and appears to recognize the potential electoral benefits of moving toward marijuana reform. With an estimated 17 million regular cannabis users in the U.S., the so-called “pot lobby” could prove influential in key races as the midterms approach.
Trump’s support for marijuana reform is not entirely new. In September 2024, he wrote on Truth Social, “I believe it is time to end needless arrests and incarcerations of adults for small amounts of marijuana for personal use. We must also implement smart regulations, while providing access for adults, to safe, tested product.” And in Florida, he voted “YES” on Amendment 3, which would have legalized recreational cannabis in the state—though the measure failed to reach the required 60% supermajority, despite garnering 55% of the vote.
The road to reform, however, is riddled with legal and bureaucratic obstacles. The Biden administration had previously sought to reschedule marijuana but ran into stiff resistance from the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). According to The Hill, DEA Administrative Law Judge John Mulrooney canceled a key hearing on the proposal after supporters alleged collusion between the agency and opponents of reform. Adam Smith, executive director of the Marijuana Policy Project, explained, “The DEA, culturally and historically, has been against reforming cannabis laws. And I think to some extent that is their natural response—to dig in their heels.”
Newly confirmed DEA chief Terry Cole has signaled that reviewing the rescheduling process would be a priority, though he notably omitted cannabis from his list of immediate concerns upon taking office. Still, legal experts believe that with presidential backing, the bureaucratic hurdles could be overcome relatively quickly. Jonathan Robbins, chair of Akerman LLP’s Cannabis Practice, told The Hill, “Outright support from President Trump will absolutely facilitate the process, particularly given that the vast majority of congressional opposition has historically come from the right side.”
Beyond the political intrigue, the science behind cannabis is also evolving rapidly. As detailed in a recent overview by Scientific American, cannabis interacts with the body’s endocannabinoid system (ECS), a network of receptors and enzymes that helps regulate mood, pain, immune response, and more. THC, the primary psychoactive compound in cannabis, binds to CB1 receptors in the brain, while CBD modulates receptor activity without producing a high. Research suggests cannabis can alleviate chronic pain, reduce anxiety, and help with conditions like multiple sclerosis and epilepsy. However, increased potency and widespread use—especially among young adults—have raised concerns about dependency and mental health risks.
Legalization advocates argue that full legalization, rather than mere rescheduling, would have the greatest impact—allowing the industry to access banking, reducing illegal cartel profits, and ensuring safer, regulated products. Marc Cohodes, a hedge fund trader and medical cannabis user, told The New York Post, “If he totally legalizes, Trump will totally destroy the Democratic Party. Polls show that most Americans want this legalized. Trump will turn the GOP into the people’s party.” But not everyone is convinced. Kevin Sabet, president of Smart Approaches to Marijuana and a former drug policy adviser, warned, “It would give huge tax breaks to the marijuana industry. That’s all that this is about. It’s about money. It’s about a small number of people making a lot of money off of many users.”
For now, Trump’s most likely path appears to be rescheduling marijuana to Schedule III—a move that would allow cannabis businesses to deduct ordinary business expenses from their taxes and encourage more states to legalize medical or recreational use. But this “compromise solution,” as Adam Smith puts it, would stop short of full legalization, leaving some federal penalties in place and continuing to limit large-scale research.
As the nation awaits Trump’s decision, the stakes are clear: the outcome will shape not only the future of cannabis policy but also the contours of American politics, business, and public health for years to come.
