As the 2025 campaign season heats up across the United States, the debate over transgender rights—particularly regarding youth sports and public facilities—has resurfaced as a central flashpoint in high-stakes elections from Virginia to North Carolina. Despite years of shifting political winds and evolving public opinion, candidates and parties continue to grapple with how best to address these contentious issues without alienating key voting blocs.
In Virginia, the governor’s race has become a vivid case study in the ongoing culture war. Republican nominee Winsome Earle-Sears, trailing in the polls with just a month to go before Election Day, has pivoted to a hardline stance on trans rights, launching a provocative new ad campaign that echoes tactics used in previous national contests. According to reporting by The New York Times and other outlets, the Earle-Sears ad attacks Democratic frontrunner Abigail Spanberger for her record on transgender issues—accusing her of supporting policies that allow transgender students to use public restrooms and locker rooms matching their gender identity, participate in girls’ sports, and keep their gender identity private from parents.
“That’s insane. Spanberger is for they/them. Not for us,” the ad’s narrator declares, juxtaposing images of Spanberger with Biden administration trans appointees and the mugshot of a Fairfax County man arrested earlier in October 2025 after identifying as a woman and exposing himself to children in women’s locker rooms. Earle-Sears, meanwhile, is cast as the candidate of “common sense.” The ad’s message is unmistakable: Democrats are out of step with everyday Virginians, while Republicans promise to restore order and protect families.
This playbook is hardly new. As Politico notes, the “they/them” attack line gained traction during the 2024 presidential race, with Trump strategists targeting Kamala Harris for her support of gender transition surgeries for prisoners. Now, the same rhetorical strategy is being deployed against Spanberger, even as Virginia’s political landscape differs markedly from last year’s national contest. The ad’s architect, Chris LaCivita—a prominent Trump ally—has publicly clashed with Earle-Sears in the past, adding a layer of intrigue for Virginia political watchers.
Spanberger, a moderate Democrat and former CIA operative, has largely campaigned on bread-and-butter issues like healthcare and housing affordability. But the renewed focus on transgender rights has put her—and her party—on the defensive. When pressed by WJLA reporter Nick Minock about her stance on trans athletes in girls’ sports and access to gendered facilities, Spanberger initially offered a lengthy, indirect answer, referencing court cases, Title IX, and the importance of public education. Her hesitancy was quickly seized upon by Republicans and made the rounds in Virginia media.
“Uh, this is bad,” one prominent Democrat in Richmond texted to Politico about Spanberger’s response, noting that she’s typically one of the party’s most disciplined communicators. GOP strategist Zack Roday was more blunt: “Even their so-called ‘moderate’ can’t summon the courage to buck the leftists running her party.”
Polling data underscores why the issue is so fraught. A 2025 Gallup poll found that 69% of U.S. adults support requiring trans athletes to compete on teams that match their birth sex, including 41% of Democrats. Another survey from The New York Times revealed that 79% of Americans want trans athletes barred from girls’ and women’s sports, with 67% of Democrats agreeing. At the same time, 27 states now have laws banning trans youth from participating in sports aligned with their gender identity, even though the Williams Institute at UCLA estimates that only about 122,000 transgender youth participate in high-school-level athletics nationwide.
Spanberger eventually recalibrated her message in a subsequent interview with a Roanoke reporter, stating that decisions about trans athletes should be left to “local schools, parents, and coaches.” She added, “I recognize the concern that families and community members might have about the safety of their own kids, about competitiveness, about fairness.” Notably, Spanberger repeated the words “safety,” “competitiveness,” and “fairness” multiple times, signaling her awareness of the issue’s potency among swing voters.
Despite the uproar, most analysts agree that Earle-Sears is unlikely to close the gap in the final weeks. Polls show her trailing Spanberger by around 10 points, and even some Republicans admit the late focus on trans issues is unlikely to produce a dramatic upset. “The trans question definitely rattled Spanberger, but Winsome didn’t spend the summer defining herself or her agenda,” said Matthew Hurtt, chairman of the Arlington County GOP. Governor Glenn Youngkin, meanwhile, has offered only tepid support, with his PAC transferring about $100,000 to Earle-Sears’ campaign—the same amount it gave to Turning Point USA in late September 2025.
Spanberger has sought to counter the attacks by leaning on her law enforcement credentials. Her latest campaign ad, released September 30, 2025, features endorsements from police officers and U.S. Marshals, highlighting her military and law enforcement family background. “Abigail Spanberger is from a military and law enforcement family,” the ad proclaims. “She went after child abusers and predators. They can’t tear down a lifetime of service with a 30-second ad. Abigail Spanberger stands for safety and security.”
Across state lines in North Carolina, the specter of the “bathroom bill” still looms large nearly a decade after it made national headlines. In 2016, then-Governor Pat McCrory signed House Bill 2, requiring individuals to use bathrooms matching their assigned sex at birth in schools and government buildings. The backlash was swift and severe: musicians canceled concerts, the NCAA and NBA pulled major events, and the state lost millions in economic activity. Democrat Roy Cooper narrowly defeated McCrory that year, capitalizing on the fallout and positioning himself as a moderate alternative.
Now, as Cooper launches his 2026 U.S. Senate campaign, political observers predict a familiar script. Meredith College professor David McLennan told WRAL, “Democrats have tried to move away from identity politics, to try to talk about economic issues, health care—not turning their back on the LGBTQ+ community, but not making it a lead issue. Republicans have learned how to frame it to be a weapon in campaign politics.”
Immediately after Cooper’s July 2025 candidacy announcement, the Republican super-PAC Senate Leadership Fund rolled out an ad attacking his record on gender issues, specifically highlighting his vetoes of bills banning gender-affirming care for minors and transgender females from competing in women’s sports. The ad’s slogan—“Cooper sides with they/them”—directly echoes the strategy used against Kamala Harris in 2024. Yet, as N.C. State University professor Steven Greene notes, this approach may be less effective against Cooper, a white man from rural North Carolina with a proven track record of winning statewide races.
All told, the renewed focus on transgender rights in campaign advertising reveals both the enduring divisiveness of the issue and the political calculations at play. While Republicans see it as a reliable wedge, Democrats are still searching for a message that resonates with both their base and the broader electorate. For now, the outcome in Virginia—and the strategies adopted in North Carolina—may well set the tone for how this debate unfolds nationally in 2026 and beyond.
With the stakes high and public opinion sharply divided, candidates in both parties are being forced to confront not just the politics of transgender rights, but the challenge of communicating clearly and credibly on an issue that remains deeply personal for many Americans—and deeply polarizing for the nation at large.
