It’s a season of uncertainty and anticipation in Texas politics as both the Democratic and Republican primaries for the U.S. Senate seat remain wide open, with voters and candidates alike weighing their next moves. A recent poll released on September 12, 2025, by Texas Public Opinion Research, has thrown the spotlight on the fluidity and unpredictability of the races—revealing that many voters are either undecided or favor candidates who have not yet officially entered the contest.
On the Republican side, the poll surveyed 843 registered voters between August 27 and August 29, 2025, and found incumbent Senator John Cornyn leading Attorney General Ken Paxton by a slim margin—32% to 26%. Notably, a significant 29% of GOP voters reported being undecided, underscoring just how unsettled the race remains. This marks a reversal from previous months, when Paxton had consistently led in the polls, and serves as a signal that Cornyn may be regaining ground in a contest that could still go either way.
"We have a fluid, single-digit race on the Republican side and both of these candidates will be duking it out for some time," said Evan Roth Smith, a pollster with Slingshot Strategies, who conducted the survey for the nonpartisan Texas Public Opinion Research. According to Smith, the battle for the endorsement of former President Donald Trump looms large. Trump’s support could prove decisive for either Cornyn or Paxton, adding another layer of drama to an already competitive primary.
Meanwhile, the Democratic primary is generating its own brand of suspense. The poll’s hypothetical matchup featured two undeclared heavyweights: former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett. O’Rourke led with 27% of the vote, closely trailed by Crockett at 26%. Both candidates, though widely speculated about, have not announced their intentions to run. Their hypothetical support dwarfed that of the two declared candidates: former Dallas congressman and 2024 Democratic Senate nominee Colin Allred, who garnered 13%, and state Rep. James Talarico, who received 7%.
The poll’s findings highlight a remarkable openness in the Democratic field. Eighteen percent of Democratic respondents said they were undecided, and with O’Rourke and Crockett not yet in the race, about three-quarters of voters polled were either undecided or backing a candidate who hasn’t declared. "You have a Democratic primary that feels wide open with a lot of different possibilities," Smith observed. This creates an environment where any number of candidates could seize the moment and rally the party’s base.
O’Rourke, who nearly toppled Republican Senator Ted Cruz in 2018, remains a tantalizing prospect for many Democrats. In a July 2025 interview on CNN, he admitted he was still weighing his options: "I didn’t yet know if I was planning to run for Senate," he said, but added he would consider it if it was "what the people of Texas want." His name recognition and past performance keep him front and center in Democratic conversations, even as he withholds a formal decision.
Jasmine Crockett, a second-term congresswoman from Dallas and a civil rights and criminal defense lawyer, is also considering her next steps. Recent Republican-driven redistricting has left her pondering whether to run in District 30, which she currently represents, or District 33, where she now lives. Her decision could impact fellow Democrats like Rep. Julie Johnson and Marc Veasey, both of whom are affected by the new boundaries. But Crockett’s ambitions may stretch beyond the House. She has not ruled out a statewide run in 2026, including a possible Senate campaign or even a bid for Texas attorney general.
"I definitely don’t feel like a statewide race is anything that I have to jump out and be like, ‘Oh, I’m running,’" Crockett told The Dallas Morning News. She emphasized the importance of data, saying, "I want to see what happens, because polls can move and move quickly." Crockett is clear-eyed about the challenges facing Democrats in Texas—a party that hasn’t won a statewide race since 1994. "The question is can you win the general election," she said. "That’s all that matters."
Those who know Crockett say she brings a unique energy to the table. Her viral moments and outspoken advocacy have boosted her name recognition, and she’s seen as someone who could energize key Democratic constituencies—especially Black voters, women, and young people. "She brings a lot of excitement. She’s a national name, she’s a high-profile fundraiser, and people really respond well to her around the state," said Kardal Coleman, chairman of the Dallas County Democratic Party.
Republicans, too, are watching Crockett’s moves closely. Abraham George, chairman of the Texas Republican Party, speculated that she would likely return to Congress, but admitted, "I hope she does run for Senate. It would drive Republicans to the polls and make my job much easier."
The polling data backs up Crockett’s growing profile. A July survey by the University of Texas at Tyler showed her as a strong contender in a Senate primary: 30% of respondents said she shared their values, slightly ahead of O’Rourke at 29% and Allred at 28%. However, when it came to perceived general election strength, Allred led with 34%, followed by Crockett at 27%.
Still, Crockett’s ability to connect with Democratic primary voters is widely acknowledged. Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University and co-author of the Texas Southern poll, said, "She’s very well positioned to win a Democratic primary. She has the image of being a fighter. She talks the talk and she walks the walk in terms of fighting the Trump administration, which is exactly what Democratic primary voters want to see."
For the lesser-known candidates, the challenge is steep. The poll found that 61% of voters had never heard of Talarico, compared to just 21% for Allred—likely a reflection of Allred’s recent statewide campaign. Talarico, who officially launched his Senate bid on September 9, 2025, will need to build recognition quickly if he hopes to break through in a crowded and restless field.
With so many voters undecided and the most popular choices not yet officially in the running, Texas finds itself at a political crossroads. The coming months will likely bring more announcements, more shifting alliances, and, if history is any guide, a few surprises. As Crockett put it, "I believe in staying ready and you ain’t got to get ready, so I’m going to keep doing the things that I do around the state and otherwise, especially as we go through this redistricting fight."
Whoever ultimately emerges from these primaries will need to ignite enthusiasm among voters and prove they can withstand the rigors of a general election in a state known for its political volatility. For now, the only certainty is that the race for Texas’ U.S. Senate seat is anything but settled.
