Across the United Kingdom and the United States, the rights and protections of LGBTQ+ communities are facing a period of intense scrutiny and challenge, with courts and governments at the center of the storm. In both countries, recent legal decisions and political developments have left many LGBTQ+ individuals feeling anxious, uncertain, and, at times, under direct threat.
In April 2025, the UK Supreme Court delivered a judgment on the meaning of "woman" and "man" in the Equality Act—a decision that, according to Nation.Cymru, left the LGBTQ+ community, especially trans and non-binary people, "angry, worried, hurt and uncertain." The subsequent consultation by the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) on a new Statutory Code of Practice was widely criticized within the community as inadequate. The draft guidance, many felt, introduced a hierarchy of rights, suggesting that some LGBTQ+ individuals' safety and rights were less important than others. This, combined with a broader rise in hate crimes and a tightening of funding for LGBTQ+ services, has contributed to a climate that Simon Blake, CEO of Stonewall, describes as reminiscent of darker times in the past.
"Time and again I talk to people of my generation who are saying that despite how much progress has been made, the atmosphere surrounding LGBTQ+ rights feels horribly reminiscent of the past, and not in a good way," Blake told Nation.Cymru. He added that less than half of LGBTQ+ people feel safe holding their partner's hand in public, according to Stonewall data. The sense of regression is not just anecdotal: hate crime data released in 2025 confirms that incidents are on the rise across the UK.
This sense of unease is compounded by the perception that political will is lagging behind the needs of the community. While the Welsh Government has maintained its commitment to LGBTQ+ funding and support, there is frustration that the UK Government has yet to deliver on several key promises. These include a fully inclusive ban on conversion practices—a pledge made repeatedly over the past eight years—and the amendment of the Crime and Policing Bill to make LGBTQ+ and disability hate crimes aggravated offences. As of October 2025, neither measure has been fully realized. Additionally, Wales still awaits the long-promised Trans Guidance for Schools, leaving many young people and educators without clear direction.
Despite these setbacks, there are glimmers of hope. In July 2025, Stonewall launched a new strategy, "In courage and unity, is hope," aimed at navigating turbulent times and shaping policy for a more inclusive future. The strategy will be formally introduced in Cardiff alongside the Cabinet Secretary for Social Justice, with a call for all political parties to prioritize the commitments laid out in the LGBTQ+ Action Plan for Wales. Blake emphasizes the need for "moral courage and political leadership to reduce the social, economic and health inequalities that exist across our four nations in the LGBTQ+ community."
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the U.S. Supreme Court under Chief Justice John Roberts is taking bold steps that could reshape the legal landscape for LGBTQ+ Americans—and for the broader fabric of American democracy. According to a detailed analysis by the Center for American Progress, the Court's summer 2025 term was marked by a flurry of "unreasoned shadow docket decisions" that signaled a rapid rightward shift. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson notably described these decisions as "Calvinball," a reference to a game where the rules change to ensure the Trump administration always prevails.
The cases decided by the Court have been sweeping. In McMahon v. New York, the Department of Education was permitted to dismantle essential functions; in Trump v. CASA, nationwide injunctions preventing potentially unconstitutional government actions were ended; and in DHS v. D.V.D., the government was allowed to deport immigrants to countries where they could face torture, without meaningful review. The Court also overturned a 90-year-old precedent in Trump v. Slaughter, allowing the president to fire agency members without cause, and undermined Congress's power of the purse in Department of State v. Aids Vaccine Advocacy Coalition.
Justice Clarence Thomas made headlines when he remarked in a public speech that he was willing to overturn precedent if he thought it was "totally stupid." The Court is now poised to consider whether to overturn or weaken the landmark 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges decision, which legalized same-sex marriage nationwide. However, Justice Samuel Alito has stated that Obergefell is "entitled to respect afforded by the doctrine of stare decisis," suggesting that, at least for now, marriage equality may be safe from reversal.
This term, the Court is also set to hear three cases directly impacting LGBTQ+ rights: Little v. Hecox and West Virginia v. B.P.J., both concerning bans on transgender students' participation in school sports, and Chiles v. Salazar, which challenges Colorado's ban on conversion therapy for minors on free speech grounds. The stakes are high: as reported by LGBTQ Nation, if the Court sides with the challengers in Chiles v. Salazar, states that have banned conversion therapy could be forced to allow it once again, potentially subjecting many LGBTQ+ youth to a practice that has been linked to depression, PTSD, and suicidal thoughts.
Despite the intense political and legal battles, the actual number of transgender athletes is vanishingly small—fewer than 10 out of 500,000 competing in college sports, and just 1% of the 8 million high school athletes in the U.S. Yet, as the Center for American Progress notes, a ruling upholding sports bans would likely "supercharge the nationwide anti-trans movement," which has already seen more than 700 bills introduced across the country.
The Supreme Court is also revisiting the Voting Rights Act of 1965, with cases like Callais v. Louisiana and NRSC v. FEC threatening to erode protections against racial discrimination in voting and increase the influence of special-interest money in elections. Hawaii Supreme Court Justice Todd Eddins has sharply criticized the Roberts Court for what he calls "ideology-driven jurisprudence," where "pretend law and pretend facts sub for real law and real facts."
In both the UK and the US, the struggle for LGBTQ+ rights is taking place against a backdrop of broader social and political polarization. Symbols like the Union Jack and rainbow crosswalks have become battlegrounds for cultural meaning, with governments debating their appropriateness in public spaces. Activists, politicians, and ordinary citizens are stepping up to defend hard-won gains, but the path forward is anything but certain.
As the UK looks ahead to the Senedd elections in 2026 and the US Supreme Court prepares to hand down decisions that could reshape LGBTQ+ rights for a generation, the call for vigilance, unity, and hope has never been more urgent. For many, the fight for equality is far from over—but neither is the belief that progress, though fragile, remains possible.
