For the first time in years, Wall Street and policymakers are navigating the U.S. labor market with a blindfold on. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the nation’s primary source for monthly jobs data, failed to release its September 2025 report due to an ongoing federal government shutdown. This absence has left analysts, investors, and politicians scrambling to piece together the state of the economy from a patchwork of private reports and alternative data sources.
Normally, the BLS jobs report is the gold standard, offering a comprehensive snapshot of hiring, layoffs, and unemployment. But as the shutdown drags on, the market’s focus has shifted to private-sector estimates—each with its own blind spots and caveats. According to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, “not having the BLS jobs data is a serious problem for assessing the health of the economy and making good policy decisions.” He added, “But the private sources of jobs data are admirably filling the information gap, at least for now. And this data shows that the job market is weak and getting weaker.”
So, what do these private sources reveal? The story is complicated. Revelio Labs, which scrapes professional networking sites like LinkedIn, initially reported a gain of 60,000 jobs in September—most in healthcare and education. But Zandi cautioned that this “paltry” increase is likely overstated, as Revelio’s data has recently undergone significant downward revisions. Meanwhile, payroll-processing giant ADP found that U.S. employers actually shed a net 32,000 private-sector jobs last month. This figure, Zandi noted, probably understates the decline since it doesn’t capture public-sector job cuts stemming from the government’s own efficiency drive.
Delving deeper into the ADP numbers, most job gains were concentrated in healthcare and among large companies with more than 500 employees. Smaller businesses, already squeezed by tariffs and restrictive immigration policies, are bearing the brunt of the downturn. “Smaller companies are getting hit hardest by the tariffs and restrictive immigration policies,” Zandi said in a series of posts on X (formerly Twitter).
Other indicators back up this gloomy picture. The Conference Board’s measure of whether jobs are easy to get or hard to find fell to its lowest level since early 2021, signaling a likely rise in unemployment. Wall Street had been expecting the BLS to show a modest gain of 45,000 to 50,000 jobs for September, following a meager increase of just 22,000 in August. But revisions to previous months have cut job growth totals sharply, even revealing a net loss in June.
Yet, in a twist, the overall pace of the economy appears to be accelerating. Second-quarter GDP growth was revised upward to 3.8%—a robust figure driven by strong consumer spending, according to recent government data. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP tracker suggests that this momentum likely continued into the third quarter, projecting growth at the same 3.8% rate. Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, noted, “The rise in real consumption in August means that, given the stronger momentum going into the third quarter, we now have third-quarter consumption growth tracking as high as 3.3%, up from 2.3% last week. Third-quarter GDP growth will be as high as 4%.”
How can the labor market look so shaky while the broader economy hums along? Some analysts point to a “no-hire, no-fire” scenario. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm, U.S. employers announced 54,064 job cuts in September—a 37% drop from August and 26% lower than September 2024. It’s only the third time this year that monthly cuts have come in below the previous year. Still, the cumulative total for 2025 stands at 946,426 job reductions—the highest since the pandemic year of 2020.
On the hiring side, the picture is even dimmer. Employers have announced plans to add just 205,000 jobs through the first nine months of 2025, a staggering 58% drop from the same period last year and the lowest since 2009. Andy Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, described the situation as a “stagnating labor market, cost increases, and a transformative new technology.” He added, “With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the job market in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring.”
Indeed, the ADP report—often viewed with skepticism due to its divergence from official government data—showed that August’s private-sector job estimate was revised downward from a gain of 54,000 to a loss of 3,000. “This month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.
The weak jobs data has had immediate policy implications. With inflation still running above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the central bank lowered interest rates in September for the first time this year to support the labor market. Traders now expect the Fed to cut rates again later this month, with the CME FedWatch tool putting the probability of a quarter-point reduction at 98%.
But uncertainty looms large. The Consumer Price Index for September, a key measure of inflation, is scheduled for release on October 15, but that, too, could be delayed if the shutdown continues. For now, economists and market participants are left piecing together the puzzle from whatever data they can find.
Amid the uncertainty, the political stakes are rising. According to the Wall Street Journal, advisers to President Donald Trump are urging him to focus on economic data for early 2026, when they expect his tax-and-spending package to begin delivering results. The White House told the Journal that the administration “is focused on pushing supply-side reforms, securing trillions in manufacturing investments, and implementing historic trade deals that will revive America’s industrial dominance.” Trump himself has hinted at a longer wait for a real turnaround, telling reporters, “Our big year won’t be really next year—it’ll be the year after.”
In the meantime, the U.S. labor market remains a riddle—one that even the best private-sector data can’t fully solve. As policymakers and business leaders await the return of official government statistics, they’re left to navigate an economy that is, at once, both resilient and fragile.
The coming weeks will test just how well the economy can weather uncertainty, and whether the job market can regain its footing before the next wave of official data finally arrives.
