Pierre Poilievre, the leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, is facing a pivotal moment in his political career as he contests a high-stakes by-election in the rural Alberta riding of Battle River-Crowfoot on August 18, 2025. After a stunning loss in his long-held Ottawa-area seat during the April general election, Poilievre is now seeking a return to the House of Commons—a move that could determine not only his future as party leader but also the direction of the Conservative opposition in parliament.
The by-election has drawn national attention for several reasons. First, the sheer number of candidates is unprecedented: a record 214 names are on the ballot, many linked to the Longest Ballot Committee, an activist group pushing for electoral reform. Their protest against Canada’s first-past-the-post system has forced Elections Canada to abandon the traditional ballot format in favor of a write-in system, where voters must manually enter their preferred candidate’s name. A full list of names is still available to voters at polling stations, but the process is undeniably more complicated than usual.
Despite the logistical headache, Poilievre is widely expected to win. Battle River-Crowfoot is a Conservative stronghold, a sprawling and largely agricultural riding almost the size of Nova Scotia. The previous Member of Parliament, Damien Kurek, won more than 80% of the vote before stepping down in June to make way for Poilievre’s candidacy. Historically, Conservative candidates in the area have never received less than 70% of the vote. Still, the margin of Poilievre’s victory will be closely scrutinized, especially with a mandatory leadership review looming in January 2026.
For Poilievre, the stakes could hardly be higher. After being ousted from his Ottawa-area seat by Liberal Bruce Fanjoy in April—a defeat that saw him lose a more than 20-point lead over the Liberals—he has been sidelined from the House of Commons. Meanwhile, Mark Carney, the newly-minted Liberal prime minister, is enjoying a political honeymoon, with polls showing the Liberals holding around 40% support and the Conservatives trailing slightly behind. The by-election is not just about regaining a seat, but about demonstrating that Poilievre can still command the confidence of his party’s base and provide a credible challenge to the government.
The campaign has not been without controversy or criticism. Some in the riding initially questioned whether Poilievre, who was born in Calgary but built his political career in Ontario, was a "parachute candidate"—someone seeking a safe seat without genuine local ties. Independent candidate Bonnie Critchley, a retired army veteran, has been particularly vocal, accusing Poilievre of using the riding as "nothing more than a means to an end." According to the BBC, Critchley’s challenge is emblematic of local frustrations with politicians who appear to take the region’s support for granted.
Political analyst and former Conservative Alberta MP Joan Crockatt told the BBC that, while there was initial skepticism, many constituents now view Poilievre as "a guy who does want to represent them, has core values that match their core values." Still, Crockatt acknowledges that not everyone is convinced. "You may see some votes on the right of where Pierre is, because he wants to keep Canada together," she said. "He's loyal to Canada. And there are sentiments of separation here that do run pretty deep. People are starting to lose their patience."
Indeed, the campaign has put a spotlight on broader issues facing Alberta and western Canada. The region’s energy sector has long felt overlooked by decision-makers in Ottawa, fueling a simmering separatist sentiment. The current political climate has only intensified these feelings, especially as trade tensions with the United States and China have hit Alberta’s agricultural producers hard. China recently imposed a punishing 76% tariff on Canadian canola—a move that directly affects many of Poilievre’s potential constituents. According to The Hill Times, these ongoing trade disputes have become a central issue in the by-election, with candidates debating how best to protect the region’s economic interests.
Poilievre has not been shy about attacking Prime Minister Carney and the Liberal government over these issues. "Mark Carney promised he was an international man of mystery who is going to negotiate deals and end tariffs," Poilievre said last Friday, as reported by the BBC. "Well, what's the result been so far?" He accuses the Liberals of failing to support Canadians impacted by trade wars, arguing that stronger leadership is needed to defend the country’s economic interests on the world stage.
The by-election has also revived debate over Canada’s electoral system. The Longest Ballot Committee’s campaign to flood the ballot with hundreds of candidates is a direct protest against first-past-the-post voting, which they argue does not fairly represent the electorate. This is the second time the group has targeted Poilievre, and he has responded by labeling their efforts a "scam" and calling for rule changes to prevent similar protests in the future. Independent candidates like Critchley have also criticized the group, suggesting that their tactics only add confusion to an already complicated process.
Despite the unusual circumstances, voter interest appears high. Almost 14,500 people cast ballots in advance voting, according to official figures. The final turnout—and, crucially, the size of Poilievre’s victory—will be watched closely by party insiders and political observers alike. With a leadership review scheduled for January, anything less than a commanding win could embolden Poilievre’s critics within the Conservative ranks.
It’s worth noting that, even as Poilievre suffered a personal defeat in April, the Conservative party as a whole increased its share of the national vote compared to four years ago. This suggests that, despite setbacks, the party’s message is resonating with a significant portion of the electorate. Still, the pressure is on Poilievre to prove that he can translate that support into electoral victories—especially in ridings where expectations are sky-high.
For the people of Battle River-Crowfoot, the by-election is more than just a local contest. It’s a test of national unity, a referendum on the direction of the Conservative Party, and a flashpoint in ongoing debates about electoral reform and regional representation. As the ballots are counted, all eyes will be on Pierre Poilievre—and the verdict could shape Canadian politics for years to come.
