Pakistan’s mineral-rich province of Balochistan, long known more for its restive politics than its economic promise, is suddenly at the center of a global scramble for rare earth elements. On August 17, 2025, Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir, made headlines by declaring that the country’s “rare earth treasure” could not only reduce Pakistan’s mounting debt, but also propel it into the ranks of the world’s most prosperous societies. His remarks, widely reported by The Economic Times and Geo Group, have thrust Pakistan’s mineral potential into the international spotlight just as the world’s major powers are rethinking their supply chains and strategic alliances.
Munir’s optimism centers on the Reko Diq mining project, a vast deposit in Balochistan that he predicts could bring in at least $2 billion annually starting in 2026, with profits expected to rise year after year. “Pakistan has a rare earth treasure; with this treasure, Pakistan’s debt will also be reduced, and Pakistan will soon be counted among the most prosperous societies,” Munir was quoted as saying in Jang media and echoed in a recent column published by Geo Group. The timing of his comments is no accident. Rare earth elements have become vital cogs in the global supply chain, powering everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to advanced defense systems. As China tightens its grip on these strategic minerals, the rest of the world is scrambling to secure alternative sources—and Pakistan is eager to present itself as a solution.
China currently accounts for the lion’s share of global rare earth mining and nearly all refining capacity. Over the past year, Beijing has imposed stricter export controls on minerals and high-performance magnets, raising alarms in capitals from Washington to New Delhi. According to The Economic Times, India is now preparing a ₹5,000 crore scheme to ramp up domestic production and reduce dependence on Chinese imports, while the United States has made it a national security priority to diversify its critical mineral supply chain.
Against this backdrop, Pakistan’s mineral wealth has suddenly become a strategic bargaining chip. The United States, keen to hedge against Chinese dominance, has stepped up economic cooperation with Islamabad. As reported by The Economic Times, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio marked Pakistan’s Independence Day by expressing Washington’s desire to “explore new areas of economic cooperation, including critical minerals and hydrocarbons.” This was soon followed by a new trade agreement aimed at lowering tariffs and attracting American investment into Balochistan’s mining sector.
Energy cooperation between the two countries is also on the rise. Pakistan’s largest refiner recently sealed a deal to import U.S. crude oil—the first such shipment under a broader trade arrangement. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, never one to shy away from bold pronouncements, announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports while simultaneously unveiling an oil partnership with Pakistan. On his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump wrote: “We have just concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves… Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling Oil to India some day!”
Yet, as The Washington Post has observed, Washington’s new-found interest in Pakistan is “less about oil than about access to minerals and rare earths.” U.S. officials see Pakistan’s untapped reserves as a potential hedge against China, a view echoed by analysts and policymakers alike. For Islamabad, however, the opportunity comes with a delicate balancing act. As Munir put it, “We will not sacrifice one friend for the other,” signaling Pakistan’s intent to maintain strong ties with both Beijing and Washington. In his column for Geo Group, Munir described his approach as a “counterbalancing act between China and the U.S.,” underscoring Pakistan’s desire to avoid becoming a pawn in a new great game.
That’s easier said than done. China remains a major player in Pakistan’s infrastructure and energy sectors, building a 2,000-mile transport corridor through the country as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. This network links northern Pakistan to a southern port on the Arabian Sea, providing Beijing with a strategic foothold and giving Islamabad access to new markets. At the same time, separatist violence in Balochistan continues to threaten mining operations. The U.S. recently designated the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) as a terrorist organization, aligning itself with Islamabad’s security concerns, but the risk of disruption remains ever-present.
Munir’s comments also come amid broader regional tensions. In a briefing to reporters in Brussels on August 16, the Army Chief accused India of attempting to destabilize Pakistan through proxy groups and increased intelligence activity. He also warned the Taliban in Kabul to halt policies that destabilize Pakistan, asserting that cross-border unrest threatens both Pakistani citizens and regional stability. “The group is accountable for the blood of Pakistani citizens,” Munir said, as reported by Khaama Press. He further emphasized that Pakistan would maintain balanced ties with both China and the U.S., reiterating, “We will not sacrifice one friendship for another.”
Pakistan’s diplomatic juggling act is complicated by persistent security threats. Tensions along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border remain high, with Islamabad accusing the Taliban of providing safe havens to militant groups targeting Pakistan. Analysts warn that without tangible cooperation from Kabul, cross-border violence is likely to escalate, further complicating Islamabad’s efforts to attract foreign investment and develop its mineral sector.
On the domestic front, Munir has sought to dispel rumors of political ambition, insisting he wishes only to remain “a servant of the state.” He’s also had to manage expectations after past disappointments; in 2019, Pakistan claimed to have discovered a massive offshore oil reserve, only for the Petroleum Division to later dismiss the find as a false alarm, according to Dawn newspaper. This time, the stakes—and the scrutiny—are much higher.
Pakistan’s mineral promise is real, but so are the hurdles. The Reko Diq project could indeed transform the country’s economic fortunes if security, governance, and investment challenges can be overcome. For now, Islamabad is walking a tightrope, seeking to capitalize on its rare earth riches while balancing the interests of rival superpowers and managing its own internal divisions. Whether Pakistan can truly unlock its mineral potential and emerge as a prosperous, stable nation remains to be seen—but for the first time in years, the world is watching closely.
