The political landscape in Brazil is bracing for a historic and potentially seismic moment as the verdict and sentencing phase of former President Jair Bolsonaro’s coup trial commences at the Supreme Court in Brasília on Tuesday, September 2, 2025. With the world’s attention fixed on the proceedings, the stakes could hardly be higher: Bolsonaro, now 70, faces the possibility of spending more than three decades behind bars for allegedly masterminding a plot to cling to power after his defeat in the 2022 presidential election.
According to The Associated Press, the five-justice panel overseeing the case has until September 12 to deliver its decision. The trial’s timing and gravity have attracted international scrutiny, especially after former U.S. President Donald Trump—an outspoken Bolsonaro ally—linked a proposed 50% tariff on Brazilian imports to the outcome of the case and called the prosecution a "witch hunt." Trump’s remarks have triggered a wave of nationalist backlash among Brazilian leaders, including President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and have only added to the high drama surrounding the trial.
Bolsonaro’s legal troubles stem from his alleged attempt to overturn the results of the 2022 election, which he lost to Lula. Prosecutors accuse him of leading a coordinated effort to undermine Brazil’s democracy, culminating in the violent storming of government buildings in Brasília on January 8, 2023. The damage from those attacks—spanning the presidential palace, the Supreme Court, and Congress—was estimated at 20 million reais, or roughly $3.7 million, and included the destruction of irreplaceable cultural artifacts like a 17th-century clock, paintings, and rare books.
Bolsonaro, who has been under house arrest and wears an ankle bracelet, continues to deny any wrongdoing. He has repeatedly characterized the trial as politically motivated, telling supporters the case is designed to silence him and insisting, "This is a political persecution, not justice." Whether he will appear in person at the Supreme Court remains unclear, adding yet another layer of uncertainty to an already tense situation.
The trial will open at 9 a.m. local time, presided over by Justice Cristiano Zanin, a former lawyer for Lula and now chairman of the panel. None of the two Supreme Court justices appointed by Bolsonaro will participate in this panel. Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the rapporteur of the case and a figure Bolsonaro views as a staunch adversary, is expected to present a comprehensive report summarizing the charges and evidence. According to The Indian Express, de Moraes’ report will be followed by Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet reading the charges against Bolsonaro, his former aide Mauro Cid—who has signed a plea bargain deal with authorities—and six other close allies.
The list of defendants reads like a who’s who of Bolsonaro’s inner circle: Mauro Cid (former aide-de-camp), Alexandre Ramagem (former Intelligence Agency director), Almir Garnier (former Navy commander), Anderson Torres (former Justice Minister), Augusto Heleno (former Institutional Security Cabinet chief), Paulo Sérgio Nogueira (former Defense Minister), and Walter Braga Netto (former Chief of Staff). Each faces five serious charges, but Bolsonaro alone is accused of orchestrating the entire plot to subvert Brazilian democracy.
Here’s a breakdown of the charges, as detailed by AP and The Indian Express:
Attempting to stage a coup: Bolsonaro allegedly led efforts to invalidate the 2022 election results, including the circulation of an unsigned document and encouraging his supporters to storm government buildings. The maximum sentence for this charge is 12 years in prison.
Armed criminal organization: Prosecutors say Bolsonaro led a structured group that plotted violent crimes, including threats to use weapons against Justice de Moraes. This charge carries a maximum sentence of eight years.
Attempted violent abolition of democratic rule of law: The group is accused of seeking to dismantle Brazil’s democracy through various means. The maximum sentence is eight years.
Damage characterized by violence and serious threat against state assets: Bolsonaro is accused of directing mobs that caused extensive damage to state property on January 8, 2023. The estimated damage—about 20 million reais or $3.7 million—could result in a maximum sentence of three years.
Deterioration of listed heritage: The January 8 attacks also resulted in the destruction of cultural treasures, and prosecutors say Bolsonaro encouraged encampments outside military bases that fueled the riots. The maximum sentence is three years.
After the charges are read, defense lawyers for each defendant will have equal time to present their arguments. Mauro Cid’s lawyer will speak first, owing to his plea deal, followed by the others in alphabetical order. Once both sides have had their say, the five justices will review any final requests before casting their votes. A simple majority—three out of five—is enough to convict. Each justice can recommend a sentence, and if their recommendations differ, a single justice will determine the average prison time and any fines.
Should Bolsonaro or any of his co-defendants be convicted, they have the right to appeal to the full 11-member Supreme Court. However, as AP notes, the full court will not retry the entire case but will instead review specific complaints—such as disputes over sentencing or individual charges. If a majority of the full court upholds the conviction, Bolsonaro will serve his sentence. But, due to his status as a former Army captain, it is unlikely he will be sent to a regular prison. Instead, he would likely be incarcerated at the Army headquarters or the Federal Police’s main building in Brasília, a privilege not extended to most Brazilians.
The trial has sharply divided opinions within Brazil and beyond. Supporters of Bolsonaro echo his claims of political persecution, arguing that the charges are part of an ongoing campaign to stifle conservative voices. Meanwhile, backers of President Lula and many legal experts insist that the trial is a necessary step to uphold Brazil’s democratic institutions and hold powerful figures accountable for anti-democratic actions. The nationalist backlash provoked by Trump’s comments has only intensified passions, with politicians from across the spectrum weighing in on the importance of judicial independence and the rule of law.
As the justices prepare to deliver their verdict, Brazil stands at a crossroads. The outcome of this trial will not only determine the fate of a former president but will also send a powerful message about the resilience of democratic institutions in the face of unprecedented challenges. The world, watching closely, will soon see whether Brazil’s highest court can rise to the occasion.
