The political temperature in New Jersey is rising fast as the state’s gubernatorial race enters its final stretch, with Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill locked in a contest that’s become a national bellwether for voter sentiment on economic policy, housing, and the environment. What’s unfolding in the Garden State isn’t just a local squabble; it’s a preview of the themes that could dominate next year’s midterm elections across the country.
On October 8, 2025, Ciattarelli and Sherrill faced off in a televised debate that crystallized the stakes for New Jersey voters. According to ABC7 New York, both candidates sparred over issues ranging from property taxes and crime to the cost of living and, perhaps most uniquely, the future of suburban development. The numbers tell a story of tightening competition: as of October 14, 2025, Sherrill’s lead had shrunk to just four points, per the Real Clear Politics average—down from double digits just months earlier. That’s despite Democrats pouring unprecedented sums into the race, with a super PAC backed by the Democratic Governors Association spending $20 million on ads, and Sherrill’s campaign attracting 14 times more in donations than Ciattarelli’s.
The high stakes are clear. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump lost New Jersey by only six points, a dramatic improvement from his 16-point deficit in 2020. Ciattarelli himself narrowly lost to incumbent Governor Phil Murphy by just three points in 2021. As NBC and the Rutgers-Eagleton poll point out, dissatisfaction is rampant: 85% of New Jerseyans are unhappy with the state’s high cost of living, and 80% are angry about taxes. New Jersey ranks as the fourth highest-taxed state in the country and sits firmly among the top ten most expensive places to live.
Ciattarelli’s campaign is laser-focused on these anxieties. He’s running on a platform that promises to oppose sanctuary cities, reject cashless bail for violent and repeat offenders, cap property taxes, create a "Parents bill of rights," ban offshore wind farms, and launch a Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to reduce excess spending. But one of his most distinctive positions is his opposition to what he calls New Jersey’s "overdevelopment crisis."
In a move that sets him apart from Republicans elsewhere, Ciattarelli has zeroed in on the state’s 2024 affordable housing law, which requires every municipality to zone for its "fair share" of affordable homes. In an Instagram ad, bulldozers raze trees to ominous music as a clip of Sherrill repeats, “we’ve got to build more houses.” During the first debate, Ciattarelli declared, “We’re taking the ‘garden’ right out of the Garden State with all this overdevelopment.” As reported by Governing, he argues that the law is "gobbling up open space, chasing wildlife from its habitat, increasing pollution from more idling cars on already congested roads, leading to more local flooding from stormwater management issues, and driving up property taxes due to endless legal fees and additional local services."
His message is resonating with some voters and local officials, especially in the wealthy northern suburbs. Montvale Mayor Mike Ghassali, a Republican and lead plaintiff in a lawsuit challenging the housing law, told Governing, “We can’t have high-density housing in the suburbs. Then we have no more suburbs.” Ghassali insists he supports affordable housing but says towns like his are running out of developable land and struggling to keep up with the infrastructure demands of new construction, from hiring more police to building new water towers. While a state court dismissed one suit, a federal case is still pending.
Sherrill, for her part, has pushed back on Ciattarelli’s framing. In a statement to Governing, she outlined her plan to expand assistance for first-time homebuyers, promote development on vacant lots, and crack down on predatory lenders and negligent landlords. “We must lower the cost of housing while protecting our open spaces,” Sherrill said. She pointed to her record of securing federal funding to preserve areas like the Drew Forest and promised to balance environmental protection with affordability as governor.
Yet, Ciattarelli’s critics argue that his environmental concerns are more political than principled, noting his opposition to wind energy and support for fossil fuels. Ben Dziobek, founder of the Climate Revolution Action Network, accused Ciattarelli of “scapegoating” affordable housing, though he acknowledged that suburban sprawl remains a genuine issue. “We have dilapidated and disused areas in our urban cores that would be much better served if we developed them in the right way instead of losing what land New Jersey has left,” Dziobek told Governing.
The roots of the current housing law go deep. The so-called Mount Laurel Doctrine, a 50-year-old court precedent, underpins the requirement that affordable housing be distributed throughout the state, not just clustered in cities. Similar policies exist in California and Massachusetts. The Fair Share Housing Center, an advocacy group, says most New Jersey cities have adopted "strong" plans to meet their obligations, often by redeveloping shopping centers and office parks rather than building on green space. Evesham Mayor Jaclyn Veasy, a Democrat and Sherrill supporter, told Governing, “We are doing this because it is the right thing to do,” citing a new affordable-housing project for people with special needs on a former office park. Still, Veasy admits, "if they feel their communities are being changed in a negative way then they might latch onto it."
Beyond housing, the cost of electricity has emerged as a major campaign issue. In 2025, residential electricity rates in New Jersey surged 22%—to 25.31 cents per kilowatt-hour, 44% above the national average. Commercial rates are 29% higher than the national average. Ciattarelli blames the Democrats’ energy policies, especially rejoining the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a cap-and-trade program aimed at reducing carbon emissions. He calls RGGI a "carbon tax policy that has cost New Jersey $300 to $500 million a year." Former Republican Governor Chris Christie withdrew New Jersey from RGGI in 2012, calling it ineffective and costly. Governor Phil Murphy reversed course, rejoining RGGI and blocking natural gas pipelines—a move Ciattarelli says has contributed to soaring energy costs and made New Jersey an importer of electricity rather than a producer.
The implications go beyond monthly bills. As technology advances and AI data centers demand ever more power, states with high electricity costs may find themselves forced to offer tax incentives and subsidies just to stay competitive—potentially driving costs even higher for everyone else.
With the midterms looming, New Jersey’s gubernatorial race stands as a test case for how voters weigh the trade-offs between affordability, environmental protection, and the character of their communities. As the polls tighten and the rhetoric sharpens, the outcome here could offer the first clues about which issues will shape the national political landscape in 2026.
Whatever happens in November, the Garden State’s battle over housing, energy, and taxes is sure to reverberate far beyond its borders.
