Shoppers in the United States may soon find their favorite Italian pasta brands missing from grocery shelves, as a dramatic new tariff threatens to sever the transatlantic flow of one of Italy’s most iconic exports. On November 11, 2025, the U.S. government, under the Trump administration, announced a proposed 107% tariff on Italian pasta imports—a move that could double prices for American consumers and deliver a devastating blow to Italy’s $700 million pasta export industry.
This extraordinary tariff, combining a 91.74% anti-dumping duty recommended by the U.S. Commerce Department in September 2025 with an existing 15% baseline tariff on European Union goods, targets 13 major Italian pasta producers. Among them are household names such as La Molisana, Pasta Garofalo, Rummo, Agritalia, Aldino, Antiche Tradizioni Di Gragnano, Barilla (with U.S.-produced Barilla less affected), Gruppo Milo, Pastificio Artigiano Cav. Giuseppe Cocco, Pastificio Chiavenna, Pastificio Liguori, Pastificio Sgambaro, and Pastificio Tamma, according to Newsweek.
The origins of this trade dispute stretch back to August 2024, when American pasta manufacturers 8th Avenue Food & Provisions and Winland Foods filed complaints alleging that Italian producers were selling pasta in the U.S. at unfairly low prices, or "dumping." The Commerce Department’s investigation concluded that these 13 Italian companies were indeed undercutting American competitors, leading to the unprecedented tariff recommendation. The affected Italian producers, however, insist the accusations are unfounded and that the penalties are less about fair trade and more about protectionism.
"No one has those kinds of margins," lamented Giuseppe Ferro, CEO of La Molisana, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. "It’s an incredibly important market for us. But it would be a real shame to have the market snatched from us for no real reason." Ferro, who rescued La Molisana from bankruptcy in 2011 and turned it into a $400 million export powerhouse, now faces the prospect of losing access to the U.S. market—a move he describes as potentially catastrophic for his company.
Cosimo Rummo, CEO of Rummo Pasta, echoed Ferro’s concerns, telling The Wall Street Journal, "This isn’t about dumping—it’s an excuse to block imports." Rummo and other Italian executives have petitioned the Commerce Department to reconsider its findings before the final decision, which is expected to take effect in January 2026.
The financial implications for American consumers are equally stark. Jim Donnelly, chief commercial officer at Rummo USA, warned in The New York Post that pasta prices could surge from $3.99 to $7.99 per package if the tariff is implemented. Ferro noted that a 16-ounce box of rigatoni could jump from $3 to $6, effectively pricing many families out of the market for authentic Italian pasta. Retailers and importers, facing the steep cost increases, may have little choice but to pull Italian brands from their shelves altogether.
The U.S. is Italy’s largest foreign market for pasta, importing more than $700 million worth annually. The sudden imposition of such a high tariff threatens to upend decades of culinary trade—and could trigger a pasta shortage in the U.S. as early as the start of 2026. Some Italian producers are already preparing to halt exports, stating that continuing under the new tariffs is financially unviable.
The Italian government and the European Union have responded with outrage and a flurry of diplomatic activity. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has assembled a diplomatic task force to contest the tariffs, while EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has condemned the measures as "clearly unacceptable" and warned that the dispute could escalate to the World Trade Organization. "This is the first time in 30 years that we are encountering this kind of intransigence," said Enrica Massarelli, an accountant in Naples helping Italian companies challenge the anti-dumping claims, in The Wall Street Journal.
The U.S. Commerce Department, for its part, has stood by its findings, stating that the 13 examined Italian companies failed to provide requested information and were therefore deemed uncooperative. "Because the individually examined respondents in this administrative review did not provide information requested by Commerce, Commerce preliminarily determines each of the examined respondents to have been uncooperative, and thus, we will not conduct verification," the department said in its September 2025 report.
Italian exporters and their advocates dispute this characterization, arguing that they have been collaborative and that any mistakes were made in good faith. "It is absolutely not true that we weren’t collaborative. Mistakes can happen, in good faith," Massarelli insisted.
Trade tensions between the U.S. and Italy over pasta are not entirely new. The U.S. has probed Italian pasta imports for alleged underpricing since the 1990s, but previous penalties were relatively minor. This time, industry insiders warn, the scale of the tariffs is existential. The Trump administration’s broader protectionist agenda, which has seen tariffs on a range of imported goods, has exacerbated the situation. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported that wholesale prices for domestic fresh and dry vegetables rose nearly 39% over the previous year, with tariffs and labor shortages contributing to rising costs for American consumers.
While U.S. officials deny any political motivations—pointing to the administration’s friendly relations with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni—many in Italy remain skeptical. EU and Italian leaders are pushing for a resolution before January, but as the deadline approaches, the prospect of empty pasta shelves looms larger for American shoppers.
As negotiations continue, both sides face difficult choices. For Italian producers, the U.S. market has long been a vital source of revenue and prestige. For American families, authentic Italian pasta is a staple of their kitchens. The coming weeks will determine whether a compromise can be reached—or if a beloved culinary tradition will be the latest casualty of global trade wars.
For now, the fate of Italian pasta in America hangs in the balance, with industry leaders, diplomats, and consumers all anxiously awaiting the final verdict.
