Americans are no strangers to economic anxiety, but a recent wave of warnings from top analysts and a sobering new poll suggest that the nation’s collective mood may be reaching a low not seen in over a decade. According to a Wall Street Journal-NORC poll, nearly 70% of Americans now believe the “American dream” is fading or was never real—a sentiment that hasn’t been this bleak in the 15 years the poll has tracked it. That’s not just a number; it’s a barometer of national morale, and it comes at a moment when leading economists are sounding the alarm about the risk of recession before the year’s end.
Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s and a forecaster who famously predicted the 2008 financial crisis, recently told Newsweek that the U.S. economy "could tip into recession by the end of 2025." His warning, delivered in early September, was blunt: "I don’t think the economy is in a recession, at least not at this point, but it feels like it’s on the brink, it’s on the precipice of this recession." Zandi pointed to a range of "red indicators," including housing, employment, and the rising costs of everyday items, as signs that the country may be headed for trouble. He singled out stalled job growth, describing it as a "virtual standstill," and stressed that the true signal of a downturn would be when layoffs begin. "As soon as you see negative employment, payroll employment decline in a month, that’s when alarm bells should start going off," he said. "And I would anticipate that that’s going to happen, and that’s going to happen soon."
For many Americans, these warnings are more than just numbers on a spreadsheet. They’re reflected in the daily struggle to keep up with rising prices. Zandi expects annual inflation to climb from its current 2.7% to nearly 4% by late 2026, cautioning, "Prices are already rising, you can see it in data, but it’s going to rise to a degree that it will be impossible for people to ignore." This prediction comes as the gap between what Americans feel and what the economic indicators show appears to be widening. Despite historically low inflation and unemployment, just 17% of those surveyed in the Journal-NORC poll said the U.S. economy is the best in the world, while nearly 40% think other nations are stronger—a 15 percentage point jump since 2021. As Neale Mahoney, a Stanford University economics professor, told the Journal, "The gap is staggering."
While the nation wrestles with these anxieties, some states are facing even more acute risks. Maryland, for example, is among 21 states and Washington, D.C., that are either already in or at "high risk" of recession, according to Zandi’s latest assessment. This warning came the very same week that Moody’s downgraded Maryland’s bond rating, adding another layer of concern for state officials and residents alike. The timing is particularly fraught for Maryland, which has just resolved a $3.3 billion budget deficit through a combination of spending cuts and tax hikes. Governor Wes Moore has sought to emphasize economic growth in the state, but the headwinds are significant.
Maryland’s economic woes don’t stop there. Tens of thousands of retirees could soon lose their Medicare Advantage plans, as major insurance providers consider pulling those plans from the state this fall. It’s a move that could leave many scrambling for alternatives, and it’s just one of several issues dominating headlines. Meanwhile, the state’s lottery contract fight continues, with officials offering little clarity about who will ultimately run the Maryland Lottery, even as the current contract comes up for renewal.
On the national stage, Zandi points to California and New York as critical bellwethers for the country as a whole. "I think what happens with California and New York may decide what happens to the nation. I mean, if California and New York weaken and start to contract, the national economy is going to go into recession," he told Newsweek. Both states boast massive economies and are at the forefront of growth sectors like artificial intelligence, which Zandi sees as essential to staving off a downturn. Yet the risks are real, and the sense of uncertainty is palpable.
Back in Maryland, it’s not all grim news. Howard Community College’s full-time faculty union has just secured its first three-year bargaining agreement, complete with pay raises and enhanced job security. The contract, ratified by an overwhelming majority of faculty and approved by the college’s board of trustees, runs through June 30, 2028. It’s a rare bright spot that offers a measure of stability in an otherwise turbulent landscape.
Elsewhere, the U.S. Coast Guard recently recovered a 30-ton hatch from Baltimore’s harbor, days after it detached during an explosion on a coal ship. The incident, which occurred on August 18, 2025, was resolved on August 28, and serves as a reminder that even as economic worries dominate the conversation, life—and the challenges that come with it—marches on.
The state’s fisheries are also in the spotlight. East Coast managers are planning further catch restrictions in 2026 for the struggling Atlantic striped bass, a move that reflects growing concerns about the health of this iconic migratory species. For Maryland’s fishing industry and countless recreational anglers, the news will sting, but it’s seen as necessary to give the species a fighting chance at recovery.
Politics, as ever, is never far from the economic debate. President Donald Trump and Governor Wes Moore have been locked in a public feud, with Trump launching an early morning social media attack and Moore responding, "The president of the United States is losing sleep over me." It’s a sideshow that may distract from the more pressing issue of how to shore up the state’s—and the nation’s—economic resilience.
Maryland Democrats are also pushing back against the Trump administration’s plan to close a major agricultural research center in Prince George’s County. They argue that the closure would hurt American farmers and agricultural research, and possibly violate the law. Meanwhile, the state’s top election official has expressed concern over a Justice Department request for sensitive voter information, highlighting ongoing tensions between federal and state authorities.
For all the warnings and worries, Zandi does offer a glimmer of hope. Despite the risks, he insists that "the economy’s foundation remains strong as of early September 2025." Whether that optimism will bear out in the coming months is anyone’s guess. But for now, Americans—and especially Marylanders—are left to weigh the warnings, watch the indicators, and hope that the next chapter in this economic story brings better news than the last.
