The European Union's path to expansion has rarely been straightforward, but in early November 2025, the bloc took a decisive step by signaling that new countries might join its ranks by 2030. This ambitious target, announced by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and detailed in the European Commission's annual enlargement report, has injected fresh momentum—and no small amount of controversy—into the ongoing saga of EU enlargement.
"Expanding the Union is in our best interest," Kallas declared to reporters in Brussels, as she presented the latest scorecard on would-be members' efforts to join the EU, according to The Economic Times and AP. She emphasized, "Joining the European Union remains a fair, tough and merit-based process. But now, new countries joining the European Union by 2030 is a realistic goal."
The Commission's report, released on November 4 and 5, 2025, offered both praise and pointed criticism for the ten countries currently aspiring to EU membership. These include Ukraine, Montenegro, Albania, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Turkey, Serbia, and Georgia. The annual report is widely viewed as a critical roadmap for these nations—a blend of encouragement, stern warnings, and reminders that the journey is anything but guaranteed.
Montenegro, a small Balkan country of just over 600,000 people, emerged as the front-runner. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos highlighted Montenegro as "the most advanced of the candidate countries on its path to membership," with the country aiming to complete accession talks by the end of 2026. Filip Ivanovic, Montenegro's Deputy Prime Minister, told a Euronews conference, "We are looking forward to becoming the first next member of the EU." Kos added, "At the current pace and quality of reforms, we may be able to conclude accession negotiations in the coming years." The Commission, however, stressed that final approval still requires the unanimous consent of all current EU member states. "There will be no shortcuts," Kos insisted.
Albania also drew praise for what Kos called its "unprecedented progress" in reforms, with the country aiming to finish discussions by the end of 2027. Moldova, meanwhile, has moved forward with what the Commission described as "accelerated speed" despite significant pressures, including those stemming from its proximity to war-torn Ukraine. Moldovan President Maia Sandu called on the EU to show "the same determination" to overcome institutional roadblocks, aiming to conclude accession talks by 2028—a goal the Commission described as "ambitious but achievable."
Ukraine's case is perhaps the most closely watched. Despite the ongoing Russian invasion and Hungary's continued veto of formal progress in its membership negotiations, Ukraine has pressed ahead with its bid. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed the Commission's report as "proof of what can be achieved during wartime," stating via video-link in Brussels, "We have implemented the widest, the broadest anti-corruption infrastructure in Europe. And I don’t know about any country who has that many anti-corruption authorities. We are doing everything possible."
The Commission acknowledged Ukraine's commitment to its "ambitious objective" of concluding accession talks by the end of 2028, having only applied for EU membership in 2022. Yet, the report was clear: Ukraine must accelerate reforms, particularly regarding the rule of law and anti-corruption measures. The Commission noted, "Recent negative trends, including a pressure on the specialised anti-corruption agencies and civil society, must be decisively reversed." Earlier in 2025, a bill seen as undermining anti-corruption agencies sparked rare wartime protests in Kyiv, prompting the government to withdraw the legislation. The episode, as AP and Euronews reported, caught the attention of Ukraine’s European partners and raised doubts about Kyiv's commitment to its anti-corruption agenda.
Speaking at an event hosted by Euronews in Brussels, Zelenskyy renewed his call for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to stop blocking Ukraine's EU bid. "We are at war for our survival, and we would really like the prime minister of Hungary to support us, at least not block us," he said.
While Ukraine, Montenegro, Albania, and Moldova were lauded for their progress, the Commission's report pulled no punches when it came to other candidates. Serbia, often considered the most influential Western Balkan country in line for EU membership, was criticized for slowing reforms and what the Commission called a "serious erosion of trust." The report cited public concerns about corruption, the excessive use of force against protesters, and a lack of transparency. It also flagged Serbia's decision to grant Russian citizens visa-free travel rights and citizenship, warning that it "poses potential security risks for the EU." The Commission insisted, "Serbia is expected to overcome the standstill in the area of judiciary and fundamental rights overall and urgently reverse the backsliding on freedom of expression and the erosion of academic freedom."
Georgia, once hailed as the most pro-Western nation among former Soviet republics, received the Commission's sharpest rebuke. The report described Georgia as a candidate country "in name only," citing "serious democratic backsliding" and "severe restrictions on fundamental rights." The ruling Georgian Dream party has frozen EU accession talks, accused Brussels of plotting a revolution (a claim the EU strongly denies), and recently announced plans to ban the country's three largest opposition parties for allegedly threatening the constitutional order. EU Enlargement Commissioner Kos stated, "In light of Georgia's continued backsliding on the fundamentals since last year's report, the Commission considers Georgia a candidate country in name only." The EU ambassador to Georgia, Pawel Herczynski, was even more blunt: "Georgia is not on the trajectory to become an EU member state, neither in 2030 nor later." In response, Georgian Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashviliat rejected the report, asserting, "If anyone is regressing as a result of such unjust, biased, anti-democratic, polarisation-oriented, and destructive attitudes, it is precisely the current governing institutions of the European Union."
France, meanwhile, has warned that the EU itself must reform before taking on new members, citing concerns that the bloc has become unwieldy. National vetoes by Hungary and, increasingly, Slovakia have slowed decision-making, prompting the Commission to consider whether new members should face "probation" periods, restricting their use of vetoes until they demonstrate full alignment with EU principles.
Despite the hurdles, the prospect of EU membership remains a powerful motivator for pro-democratic reform, boosting trade and creating jobs. Yet, as the Commission's report makes clear, the path is steep, and the standards are high. As the EU looks toward 2030, the question isn't just which countries will join, but whether the Union itself can adapt to a new era of enlargement.
For now, the road to Brussels is open, but only for those willing—and able—to make the journey on the EU's demanding terms.
