Hurricane Melissa, a rare and ferocious Category 5 storm, is bearing down on Jamaica with a force not seen on the island in living memory. As of Monday, October 27, 2025, the National Hurricane Center reported Melissa’s maximum sustained winds at a staggering 165 miles per hour, with its outer bands already lashing Jamaica with heavy rain and rising winds. The storm’s slow, relentless approach from the south has set the stage for what officials are warning could be the most destructive hurricane in Jamaica’s recorded history.
Melissa’s path has been tracked with growing alarm over the weekend. According to ABC News, Melissa is expected to make landfall in central or western Jamaica late Monday night or early Tuesday morning, likely as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. The worst of the destruction is forecast to unfold from noon on Monday through noon Tuesday, a 24-hour window that government officials and meteorologists alike are calling critical for the island’s safety and survival.
The hurricane’s slow pace is compounding the danger. As CNN reports, Melissa has been crawling northward at just 2 to 3 miles per hour since late last week, moving only about 150 miles since Thursday afternoon. This sluggish advance means the storm will linger over Jamaica for longer than usual, unleashing a deluge of rain and powerful winds that threaten to overwhelm the island’s infrastructure. The National Hurricane Center has warned of “extensive infrastructural damage” and the likelihood that some communities may be cut off entirely as roads and bridges are washed away.
Rainfall totals are expected to be truly historic. Jamaica is bracing for 15 to 30 inches of rain, with localized amounts possibly reaching 40 inches in the island’s mountainous regions. The National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory, as cited by FOX 13 News, warns that “catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely” during this period. The combination of relentless rain and the island’s steep terrain could spell disaster for many communities.
But it’s not just the rain that has officials worried. The storm surge—caused by Melissa’s powerful winds pushing seawater onto land—could reach up to 13 feet above ground level along Jamaica’s vulnerable southern coast. This surge, combined with large waves, threatens to inundate entire neighborhoods, especially in low-lying areas like Kingston Harbour and Old Harbour Bay. The Norman Manley International Airport, perched just above sea level, is also at risk.
Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for the most vulnerable coastal areas. Matthew Samuda, Jamaica’s minister of water, environment, and climate change, spoke candidly to CNN on Monday, urging residents to heed the warnings: “Go to the shelters. Go to higher ground because this can take lives.” The government has established 800 shelters across the country, and crews from the national bus service, defense forces, and disaster preparedness units are mobilizing to assist with mass evacuations.
Jamaica’s population is particularly exposed, with 70 percent living within five kilometers of the coast, according to Samuda. The government’s preparations have been more robust than in past decades, with significant investments made in reinforcing the electricity grid and housing since the devastation of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. Yet, as Samuda admits, “when you speak about 160 mph winds, we’ve never tested our new infrastructure in that regard.”
Melissa’s rapid intensification over the weekend has left experts stunned. The hurricane’s wind speed increased by 70 mph in just 24 hours, doubling the threshold for what meteorologists classify as “rapid intensification.” This explosive strengthening, as CNN notes, is becoming more common as the world’s oceans warm due to fossil fuel pollution. Melissa is now the 45th Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic and the third to reach such strength this season—an ominous milestone that puts 2025 second only to 2005, which saw four Category 5 storms.
The storm’s southern approach is unusual and particularly dangerous for Jamaica. Most major hurricanes that have struck the island in the past have come from the east, but Melissa’s trajectory means its most powerful winds and storm surge will batter the south-facing coast directly. This is a worst-case scenario for the densely populated capital region and surrounding communities.
Already, the storm has claimed lives elsewhere in the Caribbean. Melissa has killed three people in Haiti and one in the Dominican Republic as it churned through the region last week. The threat doesn’t end with Jamaica: after making landfall, Melissa is forecast to move on to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, dumping 8 to 16 inches of rain and triggering catastrophic flash flooding and landslides. By Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, southeastern Cuba is expected to be hit as a major hurricane, with 10 to 20 inches of rain and the risk of further landslides and flooding. The southeastern Bahamas will also feel Melissa’s wrath on Wednesday, with hurricane-force winds and storm surge expected. Bermuda could see the remnants of Melissa as a Category 1 hurricane by Thursday night or Friday morning.
In Jamaica, the National Hurricane Center’s warnings have been unequivocal: “Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely today through Tuesday. Destructive winds, especially in the mountains, will begin by this evening, leading to extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and communication outages, and isolated communities.”
As the sun rose Monday morning, satellite images showed Melissa’s almost perfectly circular, clear eye—a telltale sign of its immense power—looming just over 100 miles from Jamaica’s southern coast. Lightning activity within the eyewall, observed by meteorologists, indicated the storm was still strengthening as it approached the island. The hurricane’s slow movement means the worst impacts—devastating wind, torrential rain, and deadly storm surge—will be prolonged, testing Jamaica’s resilience as never before.
For many Jamaicans, the memory of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 remains vivid. That storm, with 135 mph winds, destroyed more than 100,000 homes, wiped out power and communications, and killed 45 people. Melissa, with its 165 mph winds and unprecedented storm surge, threatens to surpass even that infamous benchmark.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has already proven extraordinary, with Melissa joining Erin and Humberto as the third Category 5 storm of the year. Only the infamous 2005 season has seen more. As warming oceans continue to fuel more intense and rapidly strengthening storms, the Caribbean faces an uncertain and perilous future.
For now, all eyes are on Jamaica as Hurricane Melissa closes in, bringing with it the full fury of nature and a test of preparedness, resilience, and community spirit that will not soon be forgotten.
