With the Premier League season reaching its halfway mark, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers are scrambling to make the right captaincy and transfer choices ahead of Gameweek 19. The latest analysis, published on December 30, 2025, dives deep into the numbers and trends shaping the FPL landscape, offering vital insights for those chasing mini-league glory or simply hoping to climb the overall leaderboard. Let’s break down the key captaincy metrics, under-the-radar player picks, and the statistical backdrop that could define this crucial gameweek.
After a low-scoring previous round where even Erling Haaland blanked, FPL managers are eager for redemption. Haaland, Manchester City’s talisman, once again finds himself at the center of attention. Despite the recent disappointment, he tops both the captaincy poll and several advanced metrics heading into a potentially favorable away clash against Sunderland. At the time of writing, Haaland commands 39% of the captaincy vote—a clear nod to his enduring appeal among managers.
But he’s not the only name in the mix. Manchester United’s Matheus Cunha and Patrick Dorgu, both set to face Wolves at Old Trafford, are gaining traction. Liverpool’s Hugo Ekitike and Florian Wirtz, preparing for a home encounter with Leeds, round out the top captaincy contenders. The captaincy metrics, which boast an 11/18 returns record this season, continue to guide managers through the weekly decision-making gauntlet, building on a strong historical track record of 26/38, 31/37, and 30/38 returns in the past three seasons.
Underlying performance data adds another layer to the captaincy debate. Haaland leads the way with 17 shots in the box, 8 big chances, and an xG (expected goals) of 3.62 over his last six matches. Cunha isn’t far behind, registering an xG of 2.91, 5 big chances, and 18 shots inside the box in the same period. Ekitike has also impressed, posting an xG of 2.42 and matching Cunha’s five big chances, while Wirtz and Dorgu trail with xG figures of 1.68 and 0.22, respectively.
Team-level metrics tell another story. Manchester United top the charts with a 13.23 xG over their last six games, backed by 72 shots inside the box and 19 big chances. Manchester City, with 12.43 xG and 66 shots in the box, aren’t far behind, while Liverpool’s 8.69 xG and 58 shots inside the box suggest a slightly less potent attack. Fixture difficulty analysis, using DraftHound’s odds, shows United with an 87% probability of scoring at least once and a 45% chance of bagging two or more goals against Wolves. City’s odds are similarly strong—86% for at least one goal and 40% for two or more against Sunderland. Liverpool, facing Leeds, have an 83% likelihood of scoring and a 38% shot at two or more goals.
Projections from Fantasy Football Hub further refine the captaincy conundrum. Haaland is forecasted to score 8.3 points with a 73% anytime returns projection against Sunderland. Cunha follows with a 6.9-point projection and a 56% returns probability, while Ekitike’s numbers stand at 5.6 points and 55%. Wirtz and Dorgu are projected at 4.7 and 4.6 points, respectively, suggesting a clear hierarchy among the captaincy candidates.
But the cumulative rank factor (CRF) shakes things up. Aggregating the various metrics, the CRF places Cunha as the ideal captaincy option for Gameweek 19 with a score of 6. Haaland, despite his statistical dominance, comes in second with a CRF of 8, followed by Dorgu (11), Ekitike (14), and Wirtz (16). It’s a fascinating twist that could tempt managers to look beyond the obvious.
Meanwhile, shrewd FPL managers are also eyeing value picks to maximize their squads within the tight budget constraints. According to Opta data, Brighton goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen, priced at £4.4m and owned by just 5.5% of managers, is a standout option. Brighton’s upcoming fixtures—away at West Ham, who have the fourth-lowest home scoring record, and then home to Burnley—offer a promising window for clean sheets and bonus points. Verbruggen’s budget-friendly price also helps free up funds for upgrades elsewhere.
Defensively, Manchester United’s Diogo Dalot emerges as a savvy pick. At £4.5m and 3.3% ownership, Dalot boasts the joint-most fantasy assists (5) among defenders, regardless of price. With Wolves visiting Old Trafford and United’s defense showing signs of resilience, Dalot could deliver both attacking returns and clean sheets. Maxim De Cuyper of Brighton, another budget defender at £4.3m, is highlighted for his recent attacking midfield role and a league-leading 1.97 xA (expected assists) among players without an assist. With favorable fixtures on the horizon, De Cuyper’s first assist seems overdue.
In midfield, Newcastle’s Jacob Murphy is flagged for his creative output. Priced at £6.0m and owned by just 0.8% of managers, Murphy has an xA of 2.24—more than any Newcastle teammate—despite limited minutes. He’s created eight big chances since his last Premier League assist, and with a run of winnable fixtures (Burnley, Crystal Palace, Leeds, and Wolves), his fortunes could turn quickly.
Up front, Dominic Calvert-Lewin of Leeds is in blistering form. At £5.8m and 8.8% ownership, he’s scored in six consecutive league games, tallying seven goals in that stretch. Only Haaland and Ekitike have a higher points-per-start average among forwards. Calvert-Lewin’s next test is a trip to Anfield, where Leeds’ prowess on set pieces (12 goals, league-leading 9.23 set-piece xG) could exploit Liverpool’s vulnerability—no team has conceded more set-piece goals (12) than the Reds. Calvert-Lewin will then face Manchester United at Elland Road, a fixture that promises fireworks given United’s struggles away from home.
As managers weigh their options, the blend of statistical rigor and gut instinct will be put to the test. Will Haaland bounce back and justify his overwhelming support? Could Cunha, buoyed by the metrics, emerge as the differential captaincy hero? And which under-the-radar picks will become the week’s breakout stars?
With Gameweek 19 just around the corner, FPL managers have an abundance of data and expert opinion at their fingertips. The pressure is on to make the right calls, and as history shows, a single inspired pick can transform a season. Stay tuned for more updates, and may your captain haul and your differentials deliver big!
