In the small West African nation of Guinea-Bissau, the political temperature has reached a fever pitch following the country’s presidential and legislative elections held on November 23, 2025. As the dust settles from a record voter turnout, both leading candidates—incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and challenger Fernando Dias da Costa—have boldly declared victory, amplifying tensions in a country with a long and troubled history of coups and political unrest.
This election was always destined to be contentious. For the first time since independence, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC)—the historic party that led the nation’s liberation from Portugal—was barred from fielding its own candidates. Authorities cited a late filing of paperwork as the reason, a move that many analysts and opposition supporters have criticized as deeply undemocratic. Instead, PAIGC threw its considerable weight behind Fernando Dias da Costa, a 47-year-old independent candidate and relative newcomer, who quickly became the focal point of opposition hopes.
President Embaló, a 53-year-old former army general, was seeking to become the first leader in three decades to win a second consecutive term in the coup-prone country. He faced a crowded field of 11 challengers, but all eyes soon turned to Dias da Costa as his strongest rival. Backed not only by PAIGC but also by former prime minister Domingos Simões Pereira and the Social Renewal Party (PRS), Dias da Costa’s campaign gained momentum in the closing weeks, especially after the PAIGC’s exclusion.
More than 960,000 citizens—nearly half of Guinea-Bissau’s 2.2 million people—were registered to vote, and turnout exceeded 65 percent, according to the National Electoral Commission (CNE). Idrissa Diallo, the commission’s spokesperson, described the election day as “calm and peaceful,” despite the high stakes and underlying tensions. Minor logistical hiccups were quickly resolved, and the process was supervised by polling staff, security forces, electoral officials, and international observers. The strong participation of women and young people was widely noted, with CNE deputy executive secretary Idriça Djaló highlighting this as evidence of “citizens’ growing ownership of their political rights.”
Yet, the peaceful conduct at the polls belied the storm brewing in the aftermath. On Monday, November 24, just a day after voting concluded, Fernando Dias da Costa stepped before his supporters in Bissau and declared, “We have won the presidential race. We will not have (a) runoff.” He asserted that he had secured more than 50% of the vote, claiming outright victory in the first round. “My people were very tired and they need alternance on the top of the state,” Dias added, emphasizing the population’s hunger for change after years of political stagnation and economic hardship, as reported by Reuters.
His assertion was quickly met with skepticism and concern. The National Electoral Commission, which had urged all parties and media outlets not to publish any unofficial figures before the official announcement, made no immediate comment on Dias’s claim. President Embaló’s camp, meanwhile, insisted that he too had secured an outright win, calling for patience and urging everyone to wait for the official results. The commission had already scheduled provisional results to be released by Thursday, November 27, though the law allows a window of up to ten days for final tabulation.
Analysts have long predicted a tight race between Embaló and Dias da Costa. The exclusion of PAIGC from the ballot only intensified the stakes, with many regarding this as a blow to the country’s democratic credentials. “The democracy we knew... is no longer the model we are experiencing; we are experiencing a model defined by a single person,” political analyst Augusto Nansambe lamented, according to newswires. Many voters and observers fear that premature declarations of victory—especially in a country where at least nine coups have occurred since independence in 1974—could spark unrest or even violence.
Guinea-Bissau’s history is littered with political instability. Since gaining independence, the country has rarely seen a peaceful transfer of power. President Embaló himself claims to have survived three coup attempts since taking office in 2020, though his opponents accuse him of manufacturing crises to justify crackdowns—a charge he firmly denies. The country remains one of the world’s poorest, with half its population considered poor by World Bank standards, and it has emerged as a key transit hub for drug trafficking between Latin America and Europe.
The 2025 elections were also notable for the broad field of candidates. In addition to Embaló and Dias da Costa, the list included former president José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) and former prime minister Baciro Djá. However, the real contest quickly crystallized between the two frontrunners, whose political camps have both accused the other of undermining the democratic process. Dias da Costa, running as an independent but buoyed by the Terra Ranka Coalition led by Domingos Simões Pereira, claimed strong results across most regions except Gabú. He also praised the high turnout as a sign of the people’s “desire for change” and insisted that legal procedures overseen by the public prosecutor’s office had been “duly respected.”
Meanwhile, the CNE found itself addressing not only domestic tensions but also logistical issues abroad. An emergency plenary session was convened to resolve incidents involving voters in Portugal and France, ultimately authorizing the use of the 2023 electronic register to ensure that affected citizens could cast their ballots.
As the nation awaits the official announcement of results, the air is thick with anticipation—and anxiety. Both Embaló and Dias da Costa have staked their claims, and their supporters are watching closely, wary of any sign that the fragile peace might be shattered. The CNE’s call for patience and restraint will be tested in the coming days as the country, and indeed the international community, looks on.
Whatever the outcome, the 2025 elections have already marked a turning point for Guinea-Bissau. The exclusion of the PAIGC, the surge in voter engagement, and the competing claims of victory all underscore the nation’s ongoing struggle to define its democratic future. As Thursday’s deadline for provisional results approaches, the people of Guinea-Bissau—and observers around the world—are holding their breath, hoping that this time, the ballot box will lead not to more turmoil, but to a new chapter of stability and hope.
